Dec 28, 2006

trippin...

Not available to post at this time.
Back next week. Sorry for the wait.

Dec 21, 2006

Pac-10 Putting Some Bigger Wins on the Board

Teams from the Pac-10 had a couple of "statement" wins last night no doubt.
Arizona kept Memphis in check at home with a balanced attack inside the arc. Memphis was in foul trouble early on, and had to rely on the double-digit scoring efforts of its bench players just to keep it close.

**Update. Pac 10 Tempo Free Stats are now up here

The Huskies made the largest noise last night, jumping out ahead of LSU early and never looking back. In what "looked" like a fast game, with Washington running and gunning all game showed up as moderate on paper at 71 possessions. This is where you have to look a little deeper at the numbers to get a better feel of the game if you hadn't watched it. Both teams were tremendous on the offensive glass, or horrendous on the defensive glass, depending on how you look at it. The Huskies pulled in 50% of their own misses while LSU gathered an almost-equally strong 39%. So, while shots were being hoisted in the 70 shot range, a high number that usually translates into a high 70 or even 80 possession game, the constant stream of offensive boards limited the amount of possessions that showed up on paper.
Spencer Hawes vs. Big Baby stats with 30 minutes of playing time for Hawes vs. 37 for Davis:







.DavisHawes
Points820
Orebs 5 4
Drebs 4 8
PPWS .66 1.28

I didn't give Kevin Durant much credit earlier in the season. Still unsure with two sub-par performances against Texas St. and LSU the last week, but last night's line helps his cause:

28 points, 4 O boards, 9 total, for 1.31 PPWS and a 16% rebounding rate on both the offensive and defensive ends.

Dec 19, 2006

Wisconsin and Georgia Have Passed Their Tests

Madtown has been waiting a few years for this from Brian Butch. Quite a line: 27 points on 11 field goal attempts, 11 boards with 4 offensive, 3 assists with zero turnovers for an incredible 1.62 PPWS, 14% offensive rebounding percentage and a goliath 37% rebounding percentage. Butch probably won't keep up numbers like this, but being able show that he is indeed capable of a game of this caliber, definitely puts some merry holiday thoughts in Badger fans' minds.
Wisconsin also scored over 1.24 points per possession in their game against Pitt while only turning it over 8 times in a 72 possession game, for a minuscule 11% turnover rate.

Not to be outdone, the "other" Big Ten title contender in Ohio St. walloped the Bearcats while holding them to 27.4% efg and only .71 points per possession, only making 19 shots on 73 attempts. Ouch. Mike Conley was the "leader" of the Buckeyes, with 7 assists, and zero turnovers. Infinite assist-to-turnover percentage, it has been done!!!

The Zags lost to a now-legitimately-tested-Georgia team despite shooting almost 70% efg. But the Bulldogs held a monster edge on the offensive glass, hauling in 44% of their misses, more than making up for the 10% difference in shooting. The Zags also turned the ball over a dreadful 27% of the time, almost double the turnovers of Georgia. It was a much faster game than both teams are accustomed to at 78 possessions, so the high percentage shooting was all the more impressive.

Some other high-profile games to wrap up the holiday season. Posts will be a little sporadic until January.

Thanks for checking

Dec 15, 2006

Tempo Free Stats Analysis....Thank you Andy Glockner

This is exactly the type of story that TFS hopes to see on a major sports news site. The Tempo-Free Metro area just picked up another 'burb.

Dec 14, 2006

The Teacher Wants Improvement

On to the ever-more important defensive analysis of the biggest gainers on the defensive end thus far....


Oklahoma (5-3) - Their current adjusted .78 points per possession defensively is 2nd best in the nation and .18 better than last year. They are limiting opponents to 40.2% from inside the arc, and also are only allowing 25% of opponents misses to be rebounded by themselves. Taylor Griffin is leading the pack while he himself is grabbing 25% of opponents misses while he's on the floor. What's hindering this stellar defense (that limited Memphis to barely a point a possession in their loss) from posting a better record is a turnover-prone offense that's giving away almost a quarter of their possessions.

Butler (10-1) - The Dawgs don't post stellar numbers in any category but currently stand at allowing under .84 PPP, almost .17 better than last year. A big key has been improving their 2 pt defense, reducing that number from an almost-worst 52% last year to a more respectable 45%. Opponents are shooting a below average 27.7%, but as Pomeroy stated, that number usually normalizes more often than 2 pt shooting, because of the nature of the shot.

Michigan St. (9-2) - The Spartans stand at .805 PP, over .156 better than last year's good but not great defense. Their inside-the-arc defense is superb, allowing 38.5% shooting on 2's and only giving up 25% of opponents' missed shots to rebounds. As a comparison, they were giving up 47.2% shooting on 2 pointers. Like last year, they don't force turnovers, only 20% this year currently, but Drew Naymick is leading the defensive effort while blocking 10.5% of opponents' shots while he's in the game.

Missouri (9-1) - Shaving .145 points off their opponents' scoring rate to .859 ppp has been attributed to a tremendous turnover-forcing defense. They are currently getting 28.7% of their opponents' possessions to end in a turnover, while grabbing a steal on 16% of every possession. Last year they were only getting 21% turnover rate and half as many steals. JuCo transfer Stefhon Hannah has been a gem defensively, as he's second in the nation in total steals (40) and 4th in the nation tempo-free style, as he's ending almost 7% of all opponents' possessions by way of steals.

Oregon (8-0) - One of the big surprises of this team is their vastly improved defense (.839 ppp, for a .119 improvement), an element lacking the past couple of seasons. Previously mentioned in the referenced Pomeroy ESPN article, the Ducks have also been fortunate with opponents' lack of 3pt shooting prowess, at only 26.2% vs 35.6% last year. That number should creep closer to last year's number over time, but what I feel is a good mark for improvement is their increased tenacity in forcing turnovers. They're currently 5th best in the nation, forcing almost a 3rd of all possessions to end in a turnover, compared to 20% last year. The question mark obviously is the higher than average 48.7% shooting they're giving up on 2 pointers. Early games against USC and UCLA will answer some questions.

Gonzaga (9-2) - .111 ppp improvement over last year thus far, to a 43rd best .900 from a defense that ranked 178th last year. They're only giving up 43.7% (vs. 48% last year) shooting on 2 pointers however, a la the Spartans, they don't force opponents' turnovers (only 18.2% this year). They limit opponents' second chances by giving up a respectable 26.6% offensive rebounding rate compared to 31.2% last year. The schedule no less has been extremely brutal up to this point, and thus their numbers appear as if they can only improve. Good signs for March...

Other teams to watch for:

Georgia (too early to tell)
Miss. St.
Purdue
Virginia Tech
Tennesse
Indiana
Central Florida
USC
Evansville

Dec 13, 2006

Putting Last Year in the Trunk

Taking a look at some early season teams who have made significant improvements to their overall offensive efficiency.
Granted, the games have been against non-conference opponents and we are comparing year-to-date numbers to end-of-last year numbers, but still, improvements this large (over a .1 point per possession increase, or on average almost 7 points a game at an average tempo) merits some press:

Air Force (10-1)- The team that has already garnered plenty of press here and around the nation, was already efficient last year (1.12 points per possession), however they currently run at a tops-in-the-nation 1.29 PPP while shooting 63.5 eFG % and 43.6% from three. Dan Nwaelele leads the way with 77.7% shooting but all five guys with over 60% of the minutes are shooting over 55% eFG.
Their 16.9% turnover percentage is sublime and they've improved this much while only allowing .02 PPP more on defense from last year.

Purdue (8-1) - Two words on the improvement. Carl Landry. His return this season has helped them add .11 points a possession as he has been involved in over 31% of all possessions, is shooting 68.6% from 2, and is grabbing 13.4% of available offensive boards while he's on the court. Purdue's offensive efficiency has improved from 99.3 to 110.3 while getting some good early season wins against an unbeaten Missouri team, Virginia and a better-than-their-record shows Oklahoma team. Granted the Big Ten season will invariably bring that efficiency down, but it's a good sign to know that Carl Landry has helped their offense click this year.
Their D is also limiting their opponents to an even better .136 points less per possession than last year, but we'll save that for later.

Washington St. (9-1)- Tony Bennett has conjured up some magic out in Pullman, WA thanks to a team that protects the ball infinitely better than last year's team while improving their points per possession by over .105 to 1.05 currently. They're turning it over 18.3% this year compared to over 22% last year, with Derrick Low being the key for the team; dropping his rate from a ghastly 27.1% to a guard-position-exquisite 10.2%!! Combine their offensive turnover improvement to their defensive turnover improvement (3.9% more forced) and that's around a 5 point swing in their favor on average. They've also improved greatly from three-land, shooting 42.1% currently compared to 33.2% last year. With quality wins over Gonzaga and UAB, the Cougs are in good hands. Their last test before the Pac-10 will be against San Diego St on December 21st.


Defense will be dabbled in tomorrow.


Other teams of note:

Winthrop
Georgia
Xavier
Western Kentucky
Maryland
Arizona

Dec 12, 2006

Basketball??? This is Pony Racing!!!

A game I was going to post about but forgot, I'll elaborate on today:

Virginia Military Institute currently ranks 1st in possessions per game at a blood pressure jolting 93.2 pos/game. On Saturday, they went up against a Mercer team that also likes to run, at a more realistic 72.6 pos/game. Both teams averaged under a point a possession, but plugging in the numbers, the score predicted was totaling over 180. Sadly, Vegas did not post any lines as I would have loved to see what they would have listed it at. Final score: Mercer 105 VMI 103. Taking us back to the Loyola days.
Some stats from the game to digest:
1. VMI took 94 shots!! Sinking only 34 total, while putting up over 51% to the three and shooting 25% from 3. In most NCAA games, the two teams involved take just over 100 shots combined.
2. Mercer turned the ball over 30 times. Now here's where Tempo Free Stats is key. 30 times is an astronomical amount, no doubt, but in a game this fast (106 possessions!!!!), that's still a bad but not incongruously bad 28% turnover percentage. 30 times in a 70 possession game would definitely be horrendous.
3. On the other side, VMI only turned it over 12 times, for an 11% turnover percentage. Brilliant!! Poor shooting obviously killed them and helped Mercer overcome that large turnover margin.
4. And Mercer had all 5 starters in double digits thanks to 61% shooting between them.

Sadly, only 2,200 people were in attendance to watch the slugfest.

Additional scrumptious note on VMI's prestissimo pace: the next fasted team in the land is averaging 81 possessions a game, 12 less than the Keydets.

Dec 11, 2006

Reshuffling the Deck...

A & M - Defense wasn't as sharp as "expected", as UCLA lofted up 55.9% eFG shooting and as expected, didn't force a large amount of turnovers, with only 18% TO% on 12 turnovers in a 66 possession game.

Wichita St. - Wyoming
Was right along with what I was expecting, with the Shockers getting a solid road victory and easily covering the over at a score of 83-69. They forced 22 turnovers in a game played faster than both teams were used to, at a moderately fast 76 possessions.
The Shockers now hold some impressive victories early on in the season to give them a solid base for a tourney resume.

Butler - Indy St.
Well, that over was covered with no problem, but Butler was on the short end of the score for the first time this year, 72-64. They gave up 1.13 ppp, after averaging .79 this season. Indiana St. shot 55.4% eFG and 43.8% from three, while only turning the ball over 8 times in a 63 possession game. The interesting thing with Butler, is that they are obviously a three-point shooting team, yet they haven't shot that well at all from beyond the arc (32% overall while hoisting an 11th most 47.1% of their shots from three).
This game exposed that weakness as they only shot 28.6% while taking over 52% of their shots from three!!
A troll is afoot!

Washington
Got the type of opponent that everyone wanted them to finally face, and wow, is Gonzaga good. Washington's D was suspect, and it showed as they gave up over 1.23 points per possession and only forcing 8 measly turnovers in a fast 78 possession game. Raivio led the team with 25 points, but it was Bouldin that was efficiently effective posting 1.62 points per weighted shot on 9 of 12 shooting overall with 2 freethrows.


SDSU and Kentucky to follow along with bonus Dairy state coverage and more

Dec 9, 2006

Vegas by the Numbers

quick post before the rest of the games get started for the weekend...

Some lines that jump out today:

Butler -9 at Indiana St. O/U stands at 116, and with Butler running at 1.18 ppp, and Indy St. defending at .96, this expected 63 possession game should finish around 120-124. Butler has less of a reason to slow it down below their common pace, as Indy St. is only around 1.02 ppp.
We'll call it, Butler 66, Indiana St. 54

Wichita St. -7 at Wyoming. O/U stands at 135. The shockers are rolling in at 1.12 ppp while Wyoming is simply not limiting it's opponents, with an awful 1.11 ppp given up. The shockers may be able to open up the pace a little more than their current 65 as their offense should over-power anything that the Cowboys try to throw at them.
Let's put it on the over around 147 points, Shockers 80 Cowyboys 67

Or I could just be completely wrong

No other over/unders really jump out, however the Gonzaga-Washington game is at 166 currently. Yikes. They should get close, but will probably fall short, around 155-158, with the Huskies at least working within the 7 points that they're currently getting.

Enjoy the weekend....

Dec 8, 2006

Is it Blue or Red?

Back to 10th grade chemistry this weekend.
A slurry of solid basketball action going on this weekend. Some true litmus test games for a few teams, or simply a continuation of a tough early schedule for others.
Without much of an intro, here's a brief look at some interesting matchups:

Litmus Test Teams:

Texas A & M - A match-up of two high quality defensi with above-average offenses. A & M limits it's opponents to a measly 36.9% eFG while forcing a turnover on over 27% of possessions while UCLA stands at 46.6% and 27.5% respectively.
Both hold their opponents to under .9 points a possession.
While A & M really has only faced one tough test in LSU, hence some slightly inflated numbers, they still held the Tigers to barely a point per possession. UCLA isn't terrible efficient on offense (110) for a number 1 team, but if A & M can put a firm hold on the Bruins scoring quad of Collison, Afflalo, Shipp and Mbah a Moute, it should give us a better picture at how good this D really is.

Washington - Only test so far has been a home win against Northern Iowa in which they didn't shoot all that well (46.4% efg) and turned the ball over 17 times in a slower, more Northern Iowa-style pace of 70 possessions. Otherwise, the schedule has been a smorgasboard of easy treats all while staying home in Seattle. Leaving home to visit what should be a rabid bunch of fans against a team that is playing some sound, balanced basketball in Gonzaga will give us a clean look at the Huskies. While it won't be a defensive battle, I'll be interested to see if Washington can get it's offense running more efficiently as it's barely hanging around 1 point scored per possession while giving up .94 on the defensive end.

San Diego St - A surprising loss to Western Michigan leaves us scratching our heads over this early season gem from the MWC. However, the main cause of the loss (almost a third of their possessions ended in a turnover) isn't as strange as they've only managed to stay at the middle of the pack in that department (22.7%). Overall, their defense over the season hasn't been superb, at 1.01 PPP, and they haven't rebounded defensively all that well (giving up 31.1% of opponent's misses). With Arizona clicking in all areas of offensive production (1.25 ppp, 57% eFG, 18% TO rate), SDSU is going to have to play far above it's current level to hold off the Wildcats at home. A better performance, win or lose should help us see whether they have potential to compete for an at-large bid.


Continuation of Tough Early Schedule Teams:

Gonzaga - As previously mentioned, the 'Zags keep the resume-building pre-conference internship rolling along with their annual match-up against the school on the "wrong" side of the Cascades. Should be a great match up of Heytvelt and Raivio vs. Appleby and Hawes with Pondexter putting on a show of his own

Kentucky - With games against UCLA, Memphis and UNC, it's no wonder that the 'Cats have 3 losses against them this early in the year. Next up is what should be a tough match-up for their offense. Indiana brings in a defense averaging only .83 ppp against it while holding shooters to 42.7% eFG, led by DJ White who is blocking 9.4% of opponent's shots while he's on the floor. Randolph Morris was a beast against Hansbrough in the UNC game, it will be intriguingly interesting to see how Morris will be able to match up against White and the much smaller Hoosiers.


More analysis later today.....

Dec 7, 2006

Quick note

This site, obviously was quickly put up, just to get some thoughts, info, ramblings up on the web by the start of the season. With a little more time, the plan is to re-design the look and feel....wait, plan??? There's no plan with this. But, I at least hope to put more effort into trimmings and side dishes of the site.
In due time, when in Rome....

True test..

Something has to give in the 'Bama - Notre Dame matchup tonight. As previously stated, the Tide have been fortunate to come up against poor shooting to offset a marginal offense. The Irish are hitting buckets around the 58 eFG% mark, so where the expected 68 to 70 possession game ends up, should be a good watermark for 'Bama's "D". If the Irish can give Rob Kurz more shots (only shooting 18.9% of theirs), he should produce more points as he's hitting 71% eFG.
Over/under stands at 140, which could go either way. 70-64 is to be expected, in ND's favor. Calling the under.

Dec 6, 2006

Brief Sabbatical

A mixture of post-turkey depression order and other such distractions prevented daily postings.
Onward and upward.....


Current state of MCB:
Some brilliant games, quite a few surprise upsets, pre-season favorites starting out slowly, early season sleepers sprinting out of the gate, etc, etc, etc. In other words, your basic November, just with different actors in the play (welcome MVC!).
Congrats to the ACC for keeping all 12 teams ranked above 100 in offensive efficiency.
SEC is close behind with only 2 out of the top 100. Florida, has played well even with two losses, ranking 2nd offensively and 4th defensively (126.3 and 79.1!).
On that note, and of equal importance, to back up the early season praise , the Pac10, against common stereotype, has 8 teams ranked above 100 in defensive efficiency, with the biggest surprise of all being annually defensive deficient Oregon Ducks, ranked 6th at 80.3.

Teams that are probably better than given credit:
Nevada - Fazekas possibly best all-around player
Air Force - shooting the lights out, playing solid D, all while controlling the pace
Oklahoma - pay no attention to that home loss tonight, running clean enough to rebound
Notre Dame - Maryland was no joke, efficient on both ends

Not quite as clean than credit given:
Alabama - opponents are shooting poorly (38%) to help, but no forcing of TO's (only 16%) and not playing even good offense (ranked 84th) against sub-par early schedule
Duke - Maybe not great credit given anyway, but able to survive so far with poor offense, but stiffling defense aided by an extremely slow pace of 65 possessions per game. Turnovers are killing the offense led by Paulus, who stands at turning the ball over a blood-curdling 43% of his possessions.
Syracuse - two recent losses were justified as they've been running at 108 offense efficiency and 91 defense, nothing to put a gold star on. One bright note is that they stand at 2nd in block percentage, with Darryl Watkins leading the charge with an impressive 17.4% of oppenents shots blocked while he is on the floor.

From here, I'll start keeping up with daily snippets from various games.


Random stat of eye-opening potential:

Congrats to Demar Dotson of Southern Miss who has hauled in a mind-boggling 29% of potential offensive rebounds. If an opponent's shot clangs off the iron, almost a third of the time, the ball is landing in Dotson's hands. By comparison, the other top players are hovering around 19%. Hands like tractor-beams!!!!!

Nov 30, 2006

crazy scary efficiency...

Air Force line:
143.4 offensive efficiency. They scored 94 points, on ONLY 65 possessions! Shooting 70% eFG and only turning the ball over a petrifying 9% of the time. On the other side, they forced Wake into 40% shooting and only an 88.5 offensive efficiency rating. Hence the blowout of 94-58. Obliterated the over!

Ohio St-UNC game lived up to it's billing. Both teams were highly efficient (122 for OSU and 135 for UNC) while still keeping the pace fast. Even though the game stood at 74 possessions, it felt faster in the way that both teams pushed the ball throughout the game. OSU matched Air Force's low turnover percentage, only turning it over 6% of possessions. In the end, UNC's 20 free-throw attempt margin helped seal the win.
Both of these teams played a far more mature and efficient game than I think most people expected.
Also killed the over.

Nov 29, 2006

Place them bets...

Wake Forest at Airforce. The over/under stands at a paltry 132. With the Falcons running at 130 off efficiency, at a nice 59 possession pace, this game shouldn't have a problem getting into the 140's.
Wake's D isn't anything (107 efficiency) to look at either with opponents shooting close to 50%.

With the two big boys going tonight, it's tough to forecast the total points, as their efficiency numbers are skewed from blow-out wins. At a currently posted 160, it doesn't look like they'll beat it, more like scores in the 140-150's, but if UNC gets a runnin', it could eclipse the 80's for both teams.

Interesting addendum to stats of last night:
Northwestern helped chalk up a W for the Big Ten last night, despite giving up 50% of Miami's missed shots back to them in the form of offensive boards for the 'Canes. NU also only grabbed 18% of their own misses. Shooting 65.8% eFG and only turning the ball over 16% of the time will overcome most decrepit showings on the glass.

Nov 28, 2006

quick recap

Sure Shawn Pruitt led the Illini in points at 18 in their (gasp!) home loss to an extremely strong Maryland team, but the huge stat of the night was his 34% defensive rebounding percentage. All doing this with only 25 minutes on the floor.
Maryland holding Illinois to 38% eFG helped put an end to the 51 non-conference game home winning streak.

Florida State's athleticism cost them as they became careless with the ball, often resulting from charges or lazy turnovers, posting a 85 offensive efficiency.
Wisconsin ran away from them late in the second and easily covered the conservative (yet valid) over/under of 133, at a total score of 147.

Duke-Indy was an ugly defensive slugfest (all in the interpretation) with turnovers occuring 25% of the time for both teams along with sub 45% shooting. Duke's 2:1 free-throw attempt margin gave an added boost to their bottom line. 105 on the total points on 66 possessions!


Those boys down in Gainsville just don't play nice. Holding Southern University to a 40 offensive efficiency from a 35% turnover rate and only 24% eFG. Just wrong! But, gold star award goes to the Jaguars reserve forward Chike Ekweozor, who, with only 7 minutes on the floor, and 12 possessions to work with, led the team in points (6), offensive board percentage (30%) and 67% shooting on three shots. Keep that up, and with a full game to work with, he'll be pouring in plus-30 points a game.

Apparently the Kansas-Florida matchup was still occurring as the Jayhawks attempted to match the Gators' feats against their own version of a winless team.
Florida ended up winning the rematch as Kansas could only hold Dartmouth to a 49 offensive efficiency rating on 28% shooting. With an uncle as an alumnus, I felt compelled to at least get the Big Green a spot on this page. I just wish it was under better circumstances.


Mas juegos manana.

BigAcc Challenge

After quite a tasty little 4 day weekend of hoops, we can look ahead at the BigAcc challenge, now one game done with the NC St victory over the number 2 football team in the nation.

Butler of course was a big surprise of the week. How effective were they in their first seven games?
As we all know they prefer the 3 point shot (46.4% of their shots) however they haven't been shooting it all that well (only 33.1%). They've made up for it with great ball control (14.6% TO rate) and limiting the possessions in the game (a tepid 59 per game, almost last in Division I).
With a weaker Horizon league than in years past with Udub-Milwaukee being down this year and only 2 other teams still with winning records, look for Butler to continue to press their pace on others and walk away at worst second in the league. But, unfortunately, that's why there's still the rest of the season.

Kansas-Florida
Ugly first 25 minutes turned into a beauty. Not much more to say, as you've already read enough about it.

Every MVC team is at least .500 or better. Yikes.

San Diego St. could be right in the mix of the Mountain West with Air Force and Wyoming.
On their way to a 7-0 start, including a big win over Cal, they've been shooting 56.7 eFG while still keeping the pace at a brisk 73.8 possessions a game.


Tonight:

A little creepy that Florida St and Wisconsin post the exact same offensive and defensive efficiencies at 108 and 92 respectively. Bucky is favored by 11, but look for a more athletic FSU team to at least give Wisconsin fits throughout the game.

No other over/unders are jumping out as high or low. As you can see by the previous predictions, the forecasting on these is still a work in progress as I try and tweak how to weight each team's overall strength into the mix in order to dictate tempo.
Also, one obvious fact is that it is so early in the season, so a team's stats can easily be skewed further from their "expected" play.

Nov 22, 2006

moving on...

continuation....

Georgia Tech attemped 50 free throws on the way to securing a valiant comeback against an extremely strong Memphis team.
Any game with 80 possessions always opens up the possibility of a large comeback, and Georgia Tech took full advantage of it to slowly crawl back into the game in the second half. Even though G Tech was out shot by almost a 10% effective FG percentage, they made up for with 10 extra offensive boards and a healthy 13 free throw attempt margin.
The over/under on this game was 160!! And they still beat it by 17.

Games of note tonight:

Tennessee runs, Butler uhh, suns. (Rhyming is tough) We'll see who wins the possession battle as Tennessee brings in a 78 pos/game avg vs. Butlers clipping 57 pos/game pace. With Butler running efficiently (130 ppp currently), look for this game to eclipse the over/under of 137. 140's is more likely.

Kentucky is overly efficient at 130 ppp but lacking slightly on D (105 ppp). Memphis, as we all know will run until they turn off the lights, so with both teams averaging the mid-70's in possessions, I don't see how this game can come under the posted 153 point total put up by the bookies. 160's, here we come!

UNC-Zags
Zags are almost at the bottom in the percentage of 3 pointers that they take (22.3), however that number may change significantly as they go up a much stronger UNC team which will push them further out towards the arc than they've been accustomed to.


Out of town for a few days, back on Sunday.

Nov 21, 2006

Classic Tuesday Night

Thoughts and observations from a great night of roundball, with a dash of Hawaii:

Duke vs. Marquette
Picture Dominic James last year. Now picture him a few notches better with more maturity. This kid is scary to watch how he can take control of a game and produce opportunities for himself and his teammates. Not only did he post a tasty 1.40 PPWS, he dished out 7 assists to only one TO. On the other side of the ball, Josh McRoberts struggled ignormantly (so much that I had to make up a word), even though he constantly wanted the ball down the stretch. There was a span of about 5 minutes where Duke's offense consisted of feeding the ball to McRoberts, only to see him do a lazy drop-step and ending up with a weak fade away clanker. It was an ugly team-leading 15 points, as he cruised along at .75 PPWS with 3 TO's against 4 assists.


Gotta run, more recap tomorrow.

Tajuan Porter

Much has been made lately, and deservedly so, of freshmen sensation Tajuan Porter of the Oregon Ducks. After hearing rumblings from practice and the early exhibition games in which he was lighting up teams for 30 points notice was taken.
The early games for the ducks have been composed of cakefests in the friendly confines of Mac Court.
A true test came last night against Rice in Houston. With the Ducks trailing 60-52 with 1:32, and Tajuan Porter and Chamberlin Oguchi shooting a combined oh-fer on three's for the night, the following unfolded:

1:32 Aaron Brooks made Two Point Jumper. 52-60
1:29 Oregon Full Timeout. 52-60
1:29 Foul on Aaron Brooks 52-60
1:29 52-60 Chris Hagan missed Free Throw.
1:29 52-60 Rice Defensive Rebound.
1:29 52-61 Chris Hagan made Free Throw.
Then:
1:21 Tajuan Porter made Three Point Jumper. 55-61
1:17 Foul on Tajuan Porter 55-61
1:17 55-62 Chris Hagan made Free Throw.
1:17 55-63 Chris Hagan made Free Throw.
1:08 Maarty Leunen made Two Point Layup. 57-63
0:56 Foul on Aaron Brooks 57-63
0:56 57-64 Chris Hagan made Free Throw.
0:56 57-65 Chris Hagan made Free Throw.
0:50 Tajuan Porter made Three Point Jumper. 60-65
0:48 Oregon Full Timeout. 60-65
0:40 60-65 Marius Craciun missed Two Point Layup.
0:40 Oregon Defensive Rebound. 60-65
0:34 Aaron Brooks made Three Point Jumper. 63-65
0:23 Foul on Bryce Taylor 63-65
0:23 63-66 Rodney Foster made Free Throw.
0:23 63-66 Rodney Foster missed Free Throw.
0:23 Aaron Brooks Defensive Rebound. 63-66
0:23 Tajuan Porter made Three Point Jumper. 66-66
0:18 66-66 Rice Full Timeout.
0:07 66-66 Rice Full Timeout.
0:02 66-66 Rice Full Timeout.
0:00 End of the 2nd Half.

In overtime, The Ducks ran away from them, sealing a spectacular 9 point comeback in the final minute and a half.
In short, after struggling all night, Porter made three absolutely clutch three pointers on the road to keep his team alive and help them go on to win a game that last year, they typically would have lost.

How far this four guard line-up for the Ducks can go, the ol' wait and see method will be in effect.

Nov 20, 2006

Mr. Carmody...

Fitting that the slowest two teams currently in the nation seem to be annual victors in the qwest for 1950's cageball.
Princeton and the Princeton-inspired offense of Bill Carmody at Northwestern University continue to tredge through the waters of NCAA play at a brisk 51.5 and 55.8 pos/game, respectfully.
With all of this history behind them, it seems surpising that these sultans of sluggish serendipity wouldn't meet more often. I would pony up my 8 bucks just to see if they could break the 45 mark.
Sadly this pace hasn't produced the high octane offenses such as previously mentioned Air Force (running at 60 pos/game) as they're both treading just below 100 PPP.

NU has a lot more talent than previous years with some top Chicago-area freshmen in the mix so it will just be a matter of time to see if they catch onto the Carmody-offensive scheme and help to raise that O-efficiency number.

Princeton returns a majority of their minutes from a team that really turned around mid-season.

long weekend, short week

Ahh, some days off to enjoy the finer things in life. Plenty of bball to get you through the eating.

Musings from the weekend:

Georgetown getting knocked off by Old D. Why? Well, they shot better, 55.3% eFG vs. 50.9%, but those turnovers, 14 at a rate of 22.5% vs. 9.6% will usually negate a slight edge in shooting.

What's happened to the Panthers of UW-Milwaukee, the tourney gem of the past two years?
Well, coach Rob Jeter put them up against three last year post-season teams in UAB, Northern Iowa, Michigan and a surging undefeated Washington St. team for 4 of their first 5 games.
Going from eFG of 48% to 40% will do it, along with dropping your offensive efficiency to 95.1 from 108. Winning the Horizon now seems like the only way to get back into the dance this year.
How well did Nick Fazekas shoot for Nevada in their win over Ark-Pine Bluff, thus becoming Nevada's career scoring leader? Well, 90.9 eFG% while shooting 9 for 11 from 2 and and 2 for 2 from three. Posting a 1.81 PPWS. Yeehaa!!!!


Looking forward to a shoot-out with Winthrop and Maryland. If Winthrop wants to run with Maryland (81 possessions/game average), they should be able to keep up offensively (120 points per possession) vs. the Terrapins 107. We should see total points in the 130's regardless.


Meanwhile, on the other end, the Air Force-Duke matchup could go either way. Air Force is at 123.7 ppp right now, while both of the teams have D efficiencies in the mid-60's. Point totals under 100 are very realistic. But Air Force was able to run with the Illini in the first round 145 point slugfest since they're offense has the ability to hum on all cylinders.

A good night of roundball to start off the short week no less.

Nov 16, 2006

a little nugget....

A good win for MSU over a very very young inexperienced yet athletic Texas team (smells a little last-year Kansas to me). Texas obviously was 5 seperate people who happened to be wearing the same jerseys. Barnes I have a feeling will change that a la Bill Self of '05-'06 and you will see a better Texas team come January and February.
Watching Durant, while posting a .94 PPWS, I was more unimpressed with his laziness on D. His game seemed more NBA already.

Ok, so I already violated my first creed and wrote about the "major" game of the night.
I apologize. It may happen again. First night jitters....

It begins....

Utterly obsessed and intrigued by all things tempo-free, this site hopes to spread the wealth that one encounters after their first all-encompassing experience that is tempo-free stats.
A big thanks to kenpom.com and bigtenwonk.blogspot.com for the data and for greatly expanding the influence of tempo-free stats on the NCAA basketball landscape.

While recognizing the quality and composure of the sites already out there, this site will merely be an addendum to what you currently read. I hope to find those things that, while not on the front page, deserve just as much care and love from you, the bored desk jockey trying to burn up the last few hours of the afternoon.
It may be taking a different angle at the biggest game of the night, or simply a look at a stat that makes you tilt your head and say "wha?"
If it's part of college basketball, hopefully it's here.

With that, I'll wrap it up for now. Thanks for stopping by.

Remember, ingrain in your mind: Tempo Free Stats.

The revolution continues....

Oct 10, 2006

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