ACC Tempo Free Stats

Final 2007 season numbers.


Tempo (possession per 40 minutes)

1. North Carolina	74.7
2. Maryland	72.3
3. Wake Forest	71.4
4. Virginia	69.1
5. Georgia Tech	68.1
6. Clemson	67.8
7. Duke	67.3
8. NC State	66.9
9. Florida State	66.2
10. Boston College	65.6
11. Miami	65.5
12. Virginia Tech	64.8

Offensive Efficiency (points per possession)

1. North Carolina	1.12
2. Florida State	1.1
3. Boston College	1.09
4. Virginia Tech	1.09
5. Georgia Tech	1.07
6. Maryland	1.06
7. Miami	1.06
8. Virginia	1.04
9. Duke	1.04
10. Clemson	1.01
11. NC State	1.01
12. Wake Forest	0.95

Effective FG %

1. NC State	53.1%
2. North Carolina	52.9%
3. Boston College	52.6%
4. Duke	52.6%
5. Georgia Tech	52.5%
6. Florida State	52.4%
7. Virginia Tech	51%
8. Maryland	50.7%
9. Clemson	50.6%
10. Virginia	48.9%
11. Wake Forest	47.6%
12. Miami	47%

2-pt Shooting %

1. North Carolina	53.8%
2. Boston College	53.6%
3. Georgia Tech	52.9%
4. Duke	51.9%
5. NC State	51.9%
6. Clemson	50.8%
7. Virginia Tech	50.4%
8. Maryland	49.5%
9. Florida State	48.7%
10. Wake Forest	45.7%
11. Virginia	45.6%
12. Miami	44.8%

3-pt Shooting %

1. Florida State	39.9%
2. NC State	37%
3. Maryland	36.6%
4. Duke	36.1%
5. Virginia	36%
6. Virginia Tech	35.6%
7. Miami	34.6%
8. Georgia Tech	34.4%
9. Wake Forest	34.4%
10. Boston College	33.7%
11. Clemson	33.6%
12. North Carolina	33.3%

Turnover %

1. Virginia Tech	16.2%
2. Miami	17.2%
3. North Carolina	18.7%
4. Maryland	19.5%
5. Clemson	19.5%
6. Florida State	19.6%
7. Virginia	20.4%
8. Boston College	21.7%
9. Georgia Tech	22.2%
10. Duke	22.2%
11. Wake Forest	22.2%
12. NC State	22.5%

Offensive Rebounding %

1. Georgia Tech	35.8%
2. North Carolina	34.9%
3. Boston College	34.2%
4. Miami	34.2%
5. Virginia	32.5%
6. Florida State	32.2%
7. Maryland	31.8%
8. Duke	31.7%
9. Clemson	31.5%
10. Wake Forest	29.5%
11. Virginia Tech	27.4%
12. NC State	23.7%

Efficiency Margin

1. North Carolina	0.17
2. Maryland	0.06
3. Duke	0.04
4. Virginia	0.02
5. Boston College	0.02
6. Virginia Tech	0.01
7. Florida State	0.01
8. Georgia Tech	0.01
9. Clemson	-0.02
10. NC State	-0.1
11. Miami	-0.12
12. Wake Forest	-0.12

Defensive Numbers



Points per possession Allowed

1. North Carolina	0.95
2. Duke	0.99
3. Maryland	1
4. Virginia	1.02
5. Clemson	1.04
6. Georgia Tech	1.06
7. Boston College	1.07
8. Virginia Tech	1.08
9. Wake Forest	1.08
10. Florida State	1.09
11. NC State	1.11
12. Miami	1.17

Effective Shooting % Allowed

1. Virginia	46.1%
2. North Carolina	47.8%
3. Maryland	47.9%
4. Virginia Tech	49.7%
5. Duke	50%
6. NC State	51.2%
7. Boston College	51.3%
8. Florida State	52.9%
9. Clemson	53%
10. Wake Forest	53%
11. Georgia Tech	53.3%
12. Miami	57.2%

2-pt Shooting % Allowed

1. Virginia	44%
2. North Carolina	45.4%
3. Virginia Tech	48.1%
4. Duke	48.2%
5. Maryland	48.4%
6. NC State	49.4%
7. Boston College	50.3%
8. Florida State	52.5%
9. Clemson	53.1%
10. Georgia Tech	54.1%
11. Wake Forest	54.2%
12. Miami	55.4%

3-pt Shooting % Allowed

1. Maryland	31.1%
2. Wake Forest	33.8%
3. Virginia	33.9%
4. Georgia Tech	34.4%
5. Clemson	34.9%
6. Virginia Tech	35.4%
7. North Carolina	35.6%
8. Florida State	35.7%
9. Boston College	35.9%
10. Duke	37.4%
11. NC State	37.5%
12. Miami	40%

Turnover % Forced

1. Clemson	24.5%
2. Georgia Tech	23%
3. Duke	21.9%
4. North Carolina	21.1%
5. Maryland	20.9%
6. Wake Forest	20.1%
7. Florida State	19.5%
8. Virginia Tech	19.2%
9. Miami	18.8%
10. Virginia	17.7%
11. Boston College	17.6%
12. NC State	17.1%

Defensive Rebounding %

1. Miami	77.4%
2. Duke	76.8%
3. Wake Forest	75.9%
4. North Carolina	75.7%
5. Georgia Tech	74.8%
6. Virginia	71.9%
7. Florida State	71.8%
8. Virginia Tech	70.6%
9. Boston College	68.8%
10. Maryland	68%
11. Clemson	67.3%
12. NC State	66.5%

ACC 2006 Tempo Free Stats

Just for some perusing to fulfil your appetite.
I'll start posting 2006 season numbers for all of the in-conference games.
Feel free to relive, compare or simply disregard them.

ACC 2006 season


Tempo (possession per 40 minutes)

1. Maryland	74.5
2. Duke	73.9
3. North Carolina	72
4. Florida State	70.3
5. Georgia Tech	69.8
6. Clemson	69.6
7. Wake Forest	67.6
8. Virginia	66.4
9. Virginia Tech	65.8
10. NC State	65.4
11. Miami	62.9
12. Boston College	62.5

Offensive Efficiency (points per possession)

1. Duke	1.12
2. North Carolina	1.11
3. NC State	1.11
4. Boston College	1.1
5. Miami	1.08
6. Wake Forest	1.05
7. Florida State	1.04
8. Virginia Tech	1.02
9. Georgia Tech	1
10. Virginia	0.99
11. Clemson	0.99
12. Maryland	0.96

Effective FG %

1. NC State	55.6%
2. Duke	55.4%
3. North Carolina	54.1%
4. Florida State	52.3%
5. Boston College	51.7%
6. Georgia Tech	51.2%
7. Wake Forest	49.2%
8. Virginia Tech	48.9%
9. Clemson	48.4%
10. Miami	48.4%
11. Maryland	45.7%
12. Virginia	45.5%

2-pt Shooting %

1. Duke	52.1%
2. North Carolina	51.3%
3. NC State	51.3%
4. Boston College	51%
5. Florida State	50%
6. Virginia Tech	49.3%
7. Clemson	48.3%
8. Georgia Tech	47.4%
9. Miami	46.5%
10. Wake Forest	46%
11. Virginia	44.4%
12. Maryland	44.2%

3-pt Shooting %

1. Georgia Tech	41.4%
2. Duke	40.9%
3. NC State	40.5%
4. North Carolina	40%
5. Florida State	38.8%
6. Wake Forest	37.4%
7. Boston College	35.5%
8. Miami	35%
9. Maryland	34.6%
10. Clemson	32.4%
11. Virginia	31.8%
12. Virginia Tech	31.8%

Turnover %

1. Virginia Tech	16.6%
2. Miami	17.7%
3. Duke	20.1%
4. NC State	20.3%
5. Boston College	20.7%
6. Virginia	21.6%
7. Clemson	21.7%
8. Wake Forest	21.8%
9. Florida State	22.2%
10. Maryland	23.2%
11. North Carolina	23.5%
12. Georgia Tech	25.8%

Offensive Rebounding %

1. Boston College	35.7%
2. Miami	35.4%
3. Clemson	34.5%
4. Wake Forest	34.4%
5. Maryland	33.9%
6. Duke	33.2%
7. Virginia Tech	33.1%
8. Virginia	32.1%
9. Florida State	32%
10. North Carolina	31.7%
11. Georgia Tech	31.6%
12. NC State	28.5%

Efficiency Margin

1. North Carolina	0.13
2. Duke	0.13
3. NC State	0.03
4. Boston College	0.02
5. Florida State	0.01
6. Miami	0
7. Clemson	-0.01
8. Virginia Tech	-0.04
9. Maryland	-0.05
10. Georgia Tech	-0.06
11. Virginia	-0.07
12. Wake Forest	-0.08

Defensive Numbers



Points per possession Allowed

1. North Carolina	0.98
2. Duke	0.99
3. Maryland	1.01
4. Clemson	1.01
5. Florida State	1.03
6. Virginia	1.06
7. Virginia Tech	1.06
8. Georgia Tech	1.06
9. Boston College	1.08
10. Miami	1.08
11. NC State	1.08
12. Wake Forest	1.14

Effective Shooting % Allowed

1. North Carolina	46.3%
2. Duke	46.9%
3. Maryland	48.3%
4. NC State	48.5%
5. Georgia Tech	50.6%
6. Virginia	51.1%
7. Boston College	51.9%
8. Florida State	52.4%
9. Miami	52.4%
10. Clemson	52.5%
11. Wake Forest	52.9%
12. Virginia Tech	53.8%

2-pt Shooting % Allowed

1. Maryland	42.9%
2. North Carolina	46.2%
3. Duke	46.5%
4. Boston College	47.8%
5. Florida State	47.9%
6. Miami	48%
7. Georgia Tech	49.1%
8. NC State	49.2%
9. Wake Forest	49.4%
10. Virginia	50.8%
11. Virginia Tech	51.9%
12. Clemson	51.9%

3-pt Shooting % Allowed

1. North Carolina	31%
2. NC State	31.2%
3. Duke	32.6%
4. Virginia	34.5%
5. Georgia Tech	36.2%
6. Clemson	36.2%
7. Virginia Tech	38.2%
8. Maryland	39.1%
9. Wake Forest	39.3%
10. Boston College	39.9%
11. Miami	39.9%
12. Florida State	40.6%

Turnover % Forced

1. Clemson	25.9%
2. Virginia Tech	24.3%
3. Florida State	24%
4. Miami	23.4%
5. Maryland	21.9%
6. Duke	21.9%
7. Georgia Tech	21%
8. Boston College	20.2%
9. North Carolina	18.6%
10. Wake Forest	18.4%
11. NC State	18.2%
12. Virginia	17.8%

Defensive Rebounding %

1. Virginia	74.2%
2. Georgia Tech	74.2%
3. North Carolina	72.6%
4. Clemson	72.2%
5. Wake Forest	72%
6. Miami	70.3%
7. Virginia Tech	69.6%
8. Florida State	69.2%
9. Boston College	68.8%
10. NC State	68.5%
11. Maryland	67%
12. Duke	64.2%

I Want Numbers!!!

Some other things to take care of (trying to pull other conference data) so the recaps will be short and sweet, with only tempo-free stats to fill your mind:

Oregon 77 Washington 89
Oregon shot well (63% efg vs. 57% efg) in this Indy 500 style 73 possession game that felt faster than that. High 25% turnover rate for the Ducks and once again bad defensive rebounding (giving up 43% offensive rebounding) along with attempting half as many free-throws as the home team. Washington finished with 1.22 points-per-possession vs. the Ducks' 1.06

UCLA 62 California 46
Big road win for the Bruins in this Ursa Major match in which they shot 53%efg vs. Cal's 41% brickfest. In addition, UCLA hauled in 37% of their misses, and only gave up 19% of Cal's misses back to them. This slow 57 possession game saw efficiencies of 1.09 for UCLA and a dreadful .81 for the Bears.

Oregon St. 55 Washington St. 70
The Cougs took care of business at home on 52% efg and limiting the Beavers to just .84 points a possession in this "fast" (for Wazzu) game of 65 possessions. Oregon St. took 15 more shots than Wazzu, but managed 15 less points than the boys in Pullman. Big home match this Saturday for the red and white.

USC 50 Stanford 65
Stanford did what it needed to do to take steps towards an NCAA berth in an ugly-tempo-free match on 53% efg and limiting the Trojans to only 31% efg. The Cardinal had 20 turnovers in this 72 possession game for a less-than-nice 28% turnover rate. This kept the scoring down, and resulted in efficiencies of a porous .69 ppp for USC and .88 ppp for Stanford.


Big big added stats coming soon!!!! Fear not you east-coast and midcoast and high-plain folks, Tempo-free goodness is coming to a conference near you!!!!

A Slurry of Salacious Games in Store

First, to last night:

Arizona St. 47 Arizona 71
The Wildcats took care of business as expected, but did so in a 15 possession slower game than what they've been averaging.
This 55 possession game saw some "expected" effective shooting and efficiency from Arizona (59% efg and 1.29 points-per-possession) and a predicted poor performance from the Sun Devils at 44% efg and .85 ppp. If the 'Cats weren't hitting nylon, they were grabbing 10 of their 25 misses on the night, led by Chase Budinger's 5 offensive boards, for a stellar 24% individual rate. He also led all scorers with 21 points on 12 shots for a 1.37 points-per-weighted shot average.


On to tonight's festivities:

Some big steps back or forward can be taken with this week's slate of games (well, in this strong of a Pac10, I guess every weekend means a lot).

UCLA and Oregon can really distance themselves with at least a split, if not more on their road swings to the Bay area and the Apple state respectively.
Or they could easily lose both, and really make the Pac10 leader board a jumbled mess for all to grab.

Oregon at Washington
Huskies are almost essentially out of the NCAA picture, unless they run the table, starting with the home stand against the Oregon schools. Aaron Brooks, after his infamous elbow will be finishing off his suspension by sitting out this game. No one probably predicted that the Ducks would've preferred him to sit out this over sitting out the Wazzu game.
Washington will run big and attempt to get Maarty Leunen in foul trouble early in order to make Coach Ernie Kent really stretch the effectiveness of his already-shallow bench. A big plus for Oregon, is that Tajuan Porter has improved his play as of late, and will be called on to shoulder some of the void left from Brooks' absence.


Oregon St. at Washington St.
The Cougs shouldn't have an issue with the Beaver's visit to Pullman, in the first home match as a ranked team in 57 years. Wazzu is leading the league in efficiency marginthanks to an offense that doesn't turn the ball over and a defense that is only allowing .93 points to be scored each possession. On the other end, Oregon St. is last in efficiency margin, giving up a huge .18 more points per possession than they're putting in. This shouldn't be a problem for the Cougs as long as they don't look ahead to their big showdown on Saturday


UCLA at California
Two similarly efficient offenses face off against two very different defensi. UCLA's claim to fame this season has been it's staunch effort against some high-powered offenses and the numbers back it up. A second-best .95 ppp allowed along with a second best-20.9% turnover rate. While they're roughly middle of the pack in shooting percentage allowed, they are hauling in those misses at an astounding 79.9% defensive rebounding rate. Cal isn't exactly a solid offensive rebounding team either. This is a good test to for the Bears to boost their NCAA profile

USC at Stanford
In a similar NCAA boat as Cal, Stanford and USC desperately need to start adding some more marquee wins to their resume after somewhat lax pre-conference schedules. Nick Young and Taj Gibson will have a little more work to keep their high PPWS numbers up against the presence of the Lopez brothers. On the other end, the Cardinal have been inconsistent as of late, shooting 44% and 67% efg in their split at the Oregon schools last weekend. Going up against an extremely strong shooting defense in USC will probably expose that weakness even more unless they can improve the ball rotation using their bigs.
Either way, one of these teams is adding a strong W to their list.

Wildcats Looking to Spark

A must win tonight, and on paper, what should be an easy win for Arizona over their in-state rivals.
While The Sun Devils would love to keep it slow the Wildcats will be running and gunning trying to get their offense back in line after a tough road stretch in the brutal La La land. The very fact that Wazzu got out of there with a split is even more impressive now.
Arizona is no doubt a pretty solid lock for the NCAA's, but I doubt after their impressive start, they'd be happy with anything less than a 4 seed.

With a nice soft game at home tonight, this may just be the spark they need leading up to their showdown against UNC on Saturday.

Pac 10 PPWS Leaders

Here's the top 20 Points-per-weighted shot producers in the Pac10. Stats are for all games. Working on conference-only numbers right now.
Games are through 1/21/2007

Darren Collison, UCLA	1.32
Mustafa Shakur, Arizona	1.31
Bryce Taylor, Oregon	1.3
Daven Harmeling, Washington State	1.29
Ivan Radenovic, Arizona	1.28
Taj Gibson, Southern California	1.27
Chase Budinger, Arizona	1.25
Jeff Pendergraph, Arizona State	1.25
Abdoulaye N'Diaye, Southern California	1.25
Nick Young, Southern California	1.23
Ryan Anderson, California	1.23
Malik Hairston, Oregon	1.23
Ryan Appleby, Washington	1.22
Aaron Brooks, Oregon	1.21
Lawrence Hill, Stanford	1.21
Mac Hopson, Washington State	1.2
Quincy Pondexter, Washington	1.19
Arron Afflalo, UCLA	1.18
Omar Wilkes, California	1.18
Derrick Low, Washington State	1.17

Lute Olsen, oh my!!!

Quite a weekend in sports.
Here's the rundown of the Pac10 games.
Updated Pac 10 Tempo Free Stats are now posted.

Washington 47 Washington St. 75
Huskies continue their downward spiral as the boys from the east side continue there rise. Wazzu shot 60% efg and only the turned the ball over 6 times in this slow 63 (for the Huskies) possession game that was obviously dictated by the Cougs. Wazzu was led by Kyle Weaver who posted a 1.72 ppws with 17 points, 4 assists, 2 steals and 8 boards. Washington only shot 34% efg on its way near the bottom of the Pac10 while Wazzu clipped at a 1.19 points-per-possession efficiency compared to Washington's .75 ppp.

Arizona 69 UCLA 73
Arizona lost it's 3rd Pac10 game in a row under Lute Olson for the first time since his inaugural season in 1983. The Bruins kept the pace slower (67 possessions) than the Wildcats would have preferred and also out shot them 55% vs. 42%. With 5 guys averaging over 55% efg on the season, Arizona has shot 42%, 42% and 51% over the past 3 losses. It didn't help the cause that 'Zona only shot 20% on their 15 attempts.

Arizona St. 49 USC 58
Nick Young and Taj Gibson provided most of the Trojans' offense, with Young getting 18 points on 1.27 ppws, and Taj Gibson adding 11 points and grabbing 21% of available defensive rebounds. Both teams weren't exactly efficient in this 59 possession game with USC almost at a point a possession and the Sun Devils at .83 ppp. Offensive rebounds were hard to come by (28% for the visitors vs 22% for USC) and they both only shot around 45% efg. USC commanded a 19 free throw attempt edge that overcame their poor offensive performance.

California 84 Oregon 92
Compare this game to the USC-Zona St. game, and it's a completely different picture. This medium paced game (66 possessions) saw efficiency of Stephen Hawking proportions!! 1.27 ppp for Cal and 1.39!!! for the Ducks. Cal shot 62% efg to Oregon's 68% average and both teams kept their turnovers low at 18% vs. 14% as the Ducks mounted a tremendous 2nd half comeback. The Ducks got beat yet again on the offensive glass (41% vs. 33%) but their starters all poured in double digit scoring, led by Malik Hairston's 1.92 ppws on 19 points and only 8 attempts to get there. Brooks led the total numbers with 22 points while dishing 6 assists and hitting 4 of his 5 threes.


Stanford 67 Oregon St. 56
The Cardinal shot extremely well (67%) but coughed up an inordinate amount of gimmes (31% turnover rate on 18 tosses) in a slow 59 possession game. (Side thought: What happened to the lightning "fast" pace of Pac10 play???? 59, 59, 66, 67 and 63 possession games????? I want my horse races!!!!)
Lawrence Hill dropped in 5 of 9 threes on his way to 24 points. Stanford also had a 13 attempt advantage from the charity line and hauled in a big chunk of their few misses at a 40% offensive rebounding rate. To see the difference in efficiency, look no further than the line of field goal attempts: Stanford 38, Oregon St. 61. Not a way to win a game if you're missing that many chances.

Oh what a night

Cal 77 Oregon St. 74
The Beavers' Jack McGillis' 3 went through, but he let it go after the buzzer as Cal held off a 6 point comeback from the home squad.
Both teams were extremely efficient in this 63 possession game (1.21 ppp for Cal, 1.16 for O St.).
Great shooting on both sides (63% vs. 61%) as Eric Vernheisel posted 13 points in only 26 minutes of play on 5 field goal attempts for a homicidal 2.18 points-per-weighted shot. Marcel Jones did his best for the Beavers, draining 29 points for a 1.58 ppws average, his second best point total of the season. Cal took care of business before it's big road game in Eugene.


Stanford 59 Oregon 66
Another close win for the Ducks in a game that they probably would have given away last year. Oregon shot poorly, and was dominated in the paint for the first half of the game. Stanford recorded 10 blocks, or in other words, almost 20% of all attempted Ducks shots were blocked. Yikes. But, they overcame this by getting the big Lopez boys in foul trouble by driving to the lane more often. This kept Stanford small and also gave Oregon a 23 free throw attempt advantage in which they made 81% of them. Brooks led the game with 18 points, despite shooting 4 for 13. Stanford missed some easy looks and only made 21% of their threes. Oguchi's shot from the corner was the key shot of the game.


Arizona St. 73 UCLA 80
No problem holding serve at home for the Bruins before their big one on Saturday. They held the Sun Devils to .95 ppp and only 13 points in the second half while posting another sub-par 1.03 ppp themselves. The game was extremely slow, as expected at only 58 possessions and was uncharacteristically ugly in the turnover field, 26% recorded by both teams. Mbah a Moute had 5 of those turnovers, but he hauled in 14 total boards, 7 offensive to post a salacious 30% offensive rebounding percentage and hauling in 32% of Arizona St.'s misses while he was on the floor.


Arizona 73 USC 80
Big win for the Trojans against an Arizona team that has now lost one game each of the past three weeks. USC shot well, 58% efg, led by Nick Young posting 1.37 ppws while getting 30 points and hauling in 8 rebounds. On the other side, Arizona shot extremely poorly, only 42% efg with Jawann Mclellan dropping a .5 ppws turd on the court on 1 of 7 shooting from the floor. This after he's been averaging over 1.2 ppws in the Pac10. The game was fast as expected at a nice 77 possession clip. USC also cradled the ball like a small puppy, only giving up 16% of their possessions in turnovers. Not bad in a 100 yard dash of a game.

Where are they going now?

In a fairly wide-open Pac10 field this year (8 legitimately can still make the NCAA, 5 have real shots at winning the conference), it's good to try and see how conference play has affected a team's stats. Any indication of future play can help. If a team's numbers are inflated due to their schedule strength, we'd like to dig that up, shake it around and beat it like a dirty old rug.

When comparing total pre-conference numbers to Pac10 play, here's just some numbers that pop out:

Of course, offensive efficiency will drop as you enter conference play, but the Bruins has dropped the most.
After cruising at 1.20 ppp pre-conference, UCLA is running at 1.06 ppp in Pac10 play.
USC has actually increased, .05 points a possession to 1.12. .05 may seem like a drop in the bucket, but with a 68 possession-on-average game, that translates into 3.4 points a game. I'm guessing they will gladly keep those 3.4 points in their 2 points win over Oregon.

On the same note, defensive efficiency will also drop (well, rise in points-per-possession allowed), however the biggest change has been Oregon, going from .9 ppp to 1.08 (facing UCLA, Arizona and USC will do that to you).
Also up there are Washington (.96 to 1.14), Arizona (.95 to 1.11) and Stanford (.92 to 1.08).
Washington St. has held steady, only going from .89 to .96 ppp.

As a cause of the Trojans increase in efficiency, USC is shooting 5.2% better in Pac10 play compared to their 53% effective FG% posted pre-conference. Thank Taj Gibson's 66.7% efg and Nick Young's 61.4% efg for that improvement.

Even better, they're turning the ball over 6.1% less in conference play. They were turning it over 24% of the time pre-conference!

Oregon wasn't great pre-conference on the offensive glass (38%), but now they're over 10% worse in conference so far. Marty Leunen can only do so much to help the cause on the boards.

UCLA meanwhile has improved their defensive rebounding by over 13%. They are currently at an incredible 84.3% rate, almost 8% better than the next highest team.

I'll post this data shortly....




Quick previews for tonight:

Stanford at Oregon
Get the ball into the hands of Lawrence Hill (58%efg, only 11% Turnover rate) and the Cardinal have at least a shot to keep it close.
Ducks have 4 guys (including limited games Hairston) shooting over 55% efg. Wowzers.

California at Oregon St.
Beavers need to force Cal into at least the 23% turnover average that Oregon St. has been forcing to have a chance. Cal has limited their exposure, only giving up 17% overall. They lost the one game that they went over 23%.

Arizona at USC
A big home win potentially for the Trojans. Look for this game to move, and potentially hit the 150's in total points. We'll see if USC's improved shooting can keep up. Oh, Arizona has 5 guys over 55% efg by the way.

Arizona St. at UCLA
Both teams will keep this one slow. UCLA better not look ahead to Saturday.

That Rain, oh that Rain

Still rough on those over/under predictions. I'll blame it on interest rates, the weather and the election year. Oh, I'm sorry, I mistook myself for the Real Estate industry.

But in games of note last night:

UNC had no problem pushing those pesky once-unbeaten Clemson Tigers further into the loss column, winning 77 to 55 on the road in a Tar Heel-defined 83 possession game. While they weren't particularly efficient (only .93 points a possession with a 27% turnover rate) they made up for it with a strong "defensive" effort, keeping the Tigers at .67 ppp on a dreadful 36.8% efg. To compare the use of possessions, UNC took 8 less shots but made 8 more field goals. We'll call that a 16 point swing!! Brandon Wright lead the charge with 17 points on only 10 shots for a 1.49 ppws to go along with his colossal 4 blocks in only 29 minutes of play.


The 'Cats of Northwestern didn't help the over on this one, as they could only muster 41 points in a 62 possession game against the Buckeyes' 73 points (1.19 ppp). It should be noted that NU's most proficient scorer, Kevin Coble was again out last night with an ankle (thank you Al Michaels!!!).
On the bright side, NU actually improved on the defensive glass, only allowing 35% of offensive rebounding chances to succeed compared to their season average of 40%.



Florida St. put a stop to Virginia Tech's hotness by holding serve at home despite getting out shot (61% efg vs. 52%) in the 69 possession game. They did limit Vtech's second chances by grabbing 82% of defensive rebounding opportunities and they held an edge in getting to the free throw line.


Syracuse did everything wrong except shoot extremely well (61.2% efg) in holding on to the one point win at home against a sub-par Bearcats squad. They coughed it up 21 times in the 73 possession game and gave up more chances on the offensive glass than they got (37% vs. 26%). But, getting to the line at the end gave them 10 extra attempts and they finished with a slight edge in offensive efficiency (1.05 vs. 1.04 ppp).


Coming this afternoon, a preview look at the Pac10 games tonight!
Morphing into a more Pac10-focused site as the days go on....

Return of the Lines

Two lines that are tempting:

Northwestern at Ohio St. 119
Over

George Washington at Richmond 127
Over

Let's wait and see....

Sorry for a lack of my usual posts. Been busy cooking up a cauldron of tempo free stats for the Pac10.

Pac 10 Tempo Free Stats

Through games of 1/21/07.

****Note: For whatever strange reason, the Pac-10 is always very slow to update their stats. They still only show through the 23rd. There's probably some east-coast bias conspiracy going on here....isn't that always the case??


Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes)

1. Arizona	70.2
2. Washington	65.8
3. USC	65.2
4. Oregon State	65
5. UCLA	64.8
6. California	64.5
7. Oregon	64.3
8. Stanford	63.9
9. Washington State	61.1
10. Arizona State	57.5

Offensive Efficiency (points per possession)

1. Oregon	1.16
2. Arizona	1.15
3. USC	1.1
4. California	1.1
5. Washington State	1.08
6. UCLA	1.07
7. Stanford	1.06
8. Washington	1.02
9. Oregon State	0.98
10. Arizona State	0.95

Effective FG %

1. USC	56.9%
2. Arizona	54.6%
3. UCLA	52.7%
4. Oregon	52.5%
5. Washington State	52.5%
6. California	52.4%
7. Washington	50.5%
8. Stanford	50.4%
9. Oregon State	48.1%
10. Arizona State	46.9%

2-pt Shooting %

1. Arizona	55.5%
2. USC	52.9%
3. Washington State	52.2%
4. Oregon State	51.4%
5. California	50.7%
6. Stanford	50.6%
7. UCLA	50.4%
8. Arizona State	49.4%
9. Oregon	47.4%
10. Washington	45.4%

3-pt Shooting %

1. USC	44%
2. Washington	42.9%
3. Oregon	40.1%
4. UCLA	37.4%
5. California	36.2%
6. Washington State	35.3%
7. Arizona	35.1%
8. Stanford	33.3%
9. Arizona State	28.2%
10. Oregon State	27.9%

Turnover %

1. Washington State	12.6%
2. Oregon	15.1%
3. California	17.3%
4. USC	17.6%
5. Arizona	18.8%
6. Oregon State	20.2%
7. UCLA	20.5%
8. Washington	21.2%
9. Stanford	21.3%
10. Arizona State	23.3%

Offensive Rebounding %

1. Stanford	36.1%
2. Arizona State	33.1%
3. UCLA	33.1%
4. Washington	32.7%
5. Arizona	31%
6. Oregon State	30.2%
7. Oregon	29.7%
8. California	26.8%
9. USC	21.5%
10. Washington State	20.9%

Efficiency Margin

1. Washington State	0.15
2. USC	0.14
3. UCLA	0.12
4. Oregon	0.06
5. Arizona	0.05
6. Stanford	0
7. California	-0.03
8. Washington	-0.13
9. Arizona State	-0.17
10. Oregon State	-0.18

Defensive Numbers



Defensive Efficiency (points per possession allowed)

1. Washington State	0.93
2. UCLA	0.95
3. USC	0.96
4. Stanford	1.06
5. Arizona	1.1
6. Oregon	1.11
7. Arizona State	1.12
8. California	1.13
9. Oregon State	1.15
10. Washington	1.16

Effective FG % Allowed

1. Washington State	45%
2. USC	45.9%
3. Stanford	47.4%
4. UCLA	48.7%
5. Arizona State	52.4%
6. Oregon	53.6%
7. Arizona	54.5%
8. California	56%
9. Washington	56.5%
10. Oregon State	56.6%

2-pt Shooting % Allowed

1. USC	41.3%
2. Washington State	43.6%
3. Stanford	45.7%
4. UCLA	48.2%
5. Arizona State	49.8%
6. Arizona	53.7%
7. California	55.6%
8. Oregon	56.1%
9. Oregon State	56.1%
10. Washington	56.5%

3-pt Shooting % Allowed

1. Washington State	31.8%
2. Oregon	32.6%
3. UCLA	33.3%
4. Stanford	34.9%
5. USC	35.4%
6. Arizona	37.4%
7. Arizona State	37.6%
8. Washington	37.6%
9. California	38%
10. Oregon State	38.3%

Turnover % Forced

1. Oregon State	21.5%
2. UCLA	20.9%
3. Oregon	20.4%
4. Washington State	20.1%
5. Arizona State	19.5%
6. USC	19.3%
7. California	17.8%
8. Washington	17.7%
9. Arizona	16.8%
10. Stanford	14.9%

Defensive Rebounding %

1. UCLA	79.9%
2. California	77.6%
3. Washington	77.1%
4. Arizona State	74.3%
5. USC	74.1%
6. Washington State	73.9%
7. Stanford	72.8%
8. Arizona	72.6%
9. Oregon State	68.9%
10. Oregon	68.3%

2006 Numbers Now Up

While we're at it, let's add 2006 numbers so that we can compare some vast (see Wazzu and Oregon) improvements or declines after the first two weekends of play.

2006 Pac 10 Tempo Free Offensive Stats

Pace (Possessions/40 minutes)

1. Arizona	70
2. Washington	69
3. USC	68
4. Oregon State	66
5. Arizona State	65
6. Stanford	65
7. UCLA	64
8. Oregon	62
9. California	62
10. Washington State	61

Offensive Efficiency (Points per possession)

1. Washington	1.1
2. Oregon	1.06
3. UCLA	1.06
4. Arizona	1.03
5. California	1.02
6. Stanford	1.01
7. USC	0.99
8. Oregon State	0.97
9. Arizona State	0.97
10. Washington State	0.9

Effective FG %

1. UCLA	53%
2. Washington	51.2%
3. Oregon	51.1%
4. Oregon State	49.6%
5. Arizona	48.9%
6. USC	48.4%
7. California	48.1%
8. Arizona State	47.7%
9. Stanford	47.2%
10. Washington State	45%

2-pt Shooting %

1. UCLA	54.1%
2. Oregon	52.7%
3. Arizona	48.8%
4. Washington	48.5%
5. Oregon State	47.2%
6. California	45.5%
7. USC	45.2%
8. Arizona State	45.1%
9. Stanford	44.8%
10. Washington State	44.5%

3-pt Shooting %

1. Washington	38%
2. Oregon State	36.9%
3. California	36.7%
4. Arizona State	36.1%
5. Stanford	35.9%
6. USC	35.9%
7. UCLA	34.2%
8. Arizona	33%
9. Oregon	32.3%
10. Washington State	30.9%

Turnover %

1. California	18.7%
2. USC	19%
3. Arizona	19.2%
4. Oregon	19.6%
5. Washington	20.2%
6. Washington State	21.2%
7. Stanford	21.6%
8. Arizona State	21.9%
9. UCLA	22.6%
10. Oregon State	23.7%

Offensive Rebounding %

1. Washington	38.9%
2. Arizona	33%
3. Oregon	32.8%
4. UCLA	32.3%
5. Stanford	30.8%
6. Arizona State	30.3%
7. Oregon State	27.7%
8. California	27.1%
9. Washington State	25.8%
10. USC	25%

Defense Numbers

Defensive Efficiency (points per possession)

1. UCLA	0.93
2. Washington State	0.97
3. California	0.97
4. Arizona	0.99
5. Washington	0.99
6. Stanford	1.01
7. USC	1.03
8. Oregon	1.05
9. Oregon State	1.07
10. Arizona State	1.09

Efficieny margin

1. UCLA	0.13
2. Washington	0.11
3. California	0.05
4. Arizona	0.04
5. Oregon	0.01
6. Stanford	0
7. USC	-0.05
8. Washington State	-0.07
9. Oregon State	-0.1
10. Arizona State	-0.12

Defensive Effective FG %

1. Washington State	45.5%
2. UCLA	46.8%
3. California	47.3%
4. Stanford	47.5%
5. Oregon State	48.4%
6. Washington	49.5%
7. Arizona State	50.4%
8. Oregon	50.5%
9. Arizona	51.8%
10. USC	52.7%

Opponent 2-pt Shooting %

1. Washington State	45.1%
2. Stanford	46.8%
3. Oregon State	48%
4. UCLA	45.5%
5. Washington	48.7%
6. California	44.8%
7. Arizona	50.4%
8. Oregon	48.2%
9. Arizona State	47.4%
10. USC	50.5%

Opponent 3-pt Shooting %

1. Washington State	31%
2. Stanford	32.8%
3. Oregon State	32.9%
4. UCLA	33.8%
5. Washington	34.2%
6. California	35%
7. Arizona	36.5%
8. Oregon	38.1%
9. Arizona State	38.1%
10. USC	38.2%

Forced Turnover %

1. Arizona	25.6%
2. Washington	22.5%
3. USC	22.4%
4. UCLA	22.3%
5. California	20.1%
6. Washington State	20%
7. Arizona State	19.5%
8. Stanford	18.9%
9. Oregon	17.8%
10. Oregon State	17.6%

Defensive Rebounding %

1. USC	75%
2. Washington State	74.2%
3. California	72.9%
4. Oregon State	72.3%
5. Arizona State	69.7%
6. Stanford	69.2%
7. UCLA	67.7%
8. Oregon	67.2%
9. Arizona	67%
10. Washington	61.1%

Pac10 Thursday

Pac10 Thursday last night (why doesn't ESPN pick this up? ACC Wednesday. Big Ten Tuesday. Big12 - Pac10 challenge will help)

Washington St. 73 Cal 56
Wazzu - Cal game got the over thanks to strong shooting (62% efg) from Wazzu and marginally-low turnovers on both sides (11 for Wash St. vs. 9 for Cal in a 63 possession game. Meanwhile, Tony Bennett's crew chalked up another impressive road win in the Pac-10 to match their victory down in Southern Cal. Please raise your hand if you predicted Wazzu would be 4-1 in the Pac10 while the Huskies of Washington would be sitting at 1-4. Anybody?

Washington 77 Stanford 78
On that note, another tough loss, well, a giveaway loss to Stanford for the Huskies in Palo Alto. Stanford's D wasn't all that impressive, as they gavie up 1.05 points a possession while allowing 50% efg and giving back 44% of Washington's misses in offensive rebounds, but they shot well (60% efg) and took advantage of some careless play (hello Appleby, this is a foul) on the part of the visiting team to get a big hold at home.

Oregon 60 Arizona St. 55
Ducks were somewhat efficient (1.09 ppp) while once again, being helped by poor 3pt shooting from the opponent (20% for the Sun Devils). Aaron Brooks shook off the demons from the USC loss (he missed a free throw with 3 attempts at the end to tie it) by sealing the win last night at the line.

Overall, the Pac10 kept its reputation as a "less-hostile" home venue league with as half the road teams won last night and Stanford barely held on.

Betting the Over Bonus CAA game
Hofstra 55 Drexel 53
Medium paced game (68 possessions) played awfully inefficient. Only .8 ppp for Hofstra vs. .775 ppp for Drexel on 35.6% vs. 36.3% shooting from the two. They also weren't grabbing many offensive board opportunities as they only totalled 17 combined o-rebounds on 71 total misses. Matching the over like expected??? Not even close!!!

1 and 1 on the night

Two tonight....

Just two "overs" that pop out as there's very few matchups with higher-than-rpi-100 teams.

Wazzu vs. Cal 122
Over

Hofstra vs. Drexel 128
Over

Enjoy the weather

We'll Try Again

2-3 on the over/under picks. Not very good indeed, but we'll see how the season averages out. Missed the NU/MSU game by 2. And Bradley/Southern Ill crawled to an even slower pace than the Salukis usually wanted (55 possessions) and there were 28 turnovers in that game.
We'll try again this afternoon.

Some brief caps:

Virginia 69 UNC 79
UNC grabbed 18 offensive boards, for a highly respected 45% offensive rebounding percentage in its 10 point win against Virgina. All of those boards helped the 'Heels overcome a 10 percent deficit in the effective shooting category. Virginia's 17 turnovers also didn't help in the 76 possession game.

Miami 63 Maryland 58
UGLY GAME OF THE NIGHT AWARD. 33.6% eFG shooting for the winners. 27.6% shooting for the losers. They both coughed up around 20% of their possessions on turnovers and couldn't even get close to averaging a point a possession. Maryland did not help their chances with this turd of a game.

Marquette 73 Uconn 69
Big road win for Marquette as Ousmane Barro totalled 17 points while hitting 1.32 points-per-weighted-shot and hauled in 22% of available rebounds while he was on the floor. On the season, Barro is averaging 60% shooting but is only taking 14% of the team's shots. On the other hand, Jerel Mcneal is taking close to 30% of the team's shots, but is only shooting 44% efg on the season. Getting some better distribution will help the Golden Eagles secure some more wins like this one.

Duke 63 Georgia Tech 74
The Stinging Insects were far worse than the usual turnover-prone Blue Devils (28 vs. 17 in a 76 possession game) but were saved by the fact that they shot the lights out (65% eFG on 58% 3pt) and that Duke couldn't hit more than 4 of their 20 attempts from beyond the arc.

Purdue 58 Indiana 85
Strong state-win for the Hoosiers with a highly efficient display of offense: 66.7% efg and 85 points in a 67 possession game for a 1.26 points-per-possession average. Joey Shaw was the highlight as he only played 18 minutes, but popped in 19 points on 1.93 ppws numbers!! With only 45% of the teams minutes played, essentially, while he was on the floor, every other point that Indiana scored was a result of Shaw. Impressed are we here at TFS.


Plenty of others, but back we go to over/under predictions. Soon to come

More over/under betting....

Some last minute over/under action.
It's hump day, might as well, right?

Games that are popping out slightly for the over:

Northwestern at Michigan St. 113 -
While it will be a game in the low 60's in possessions, expect at least 1 point a possession average between the two.

Iowa at Illinois 126
Should be close, probably around low 130's

Southern Illinois at Bradley 136
Looking like the mid 140's depending on who sets the pace. The Salukis slow 62 pos/game or Bradley's 72 pos/game pace.

Purdue at Indiana 128
We'll call this intra-state matchup at 69-63 in favor of the home team.

Pitt at Depaul 135
Tight one with Depaul taking 1.5 at home, but we'll take the points with Depaul winning 73-69


Of course, yet again, I could be completely wrong. Still tinkering.

Seeing Red....

Good Super Tuesday of basketball, as expected.

Ohio St. 69 Wisconsin 72

In the battle of the Bucks, Wisconsin used a tremendous interior defense to stifle any attempts at points in the paint, until the very end. Marcus Landry showed up in the stat sheet with 4 blocks in only 21 minutes!! With Ohio St. shooting 34 two-point shots, that's an outrageous 22% of all attempted two-point shots that he blocked while he was on the floor. Just as impressive was Wisconsin blocking 21% of all two point shots during the game. 8% is great, 22% is insane. Anyone watching the game could see the swarms of white that would descend the minute the ball got inside the arc. Taylor stepped up during Tucker's "poor" shooting to hit 1.60 points-per-weighted shot for 25 total points. Ohio St.'s improvement over the course of the game in their numerous 3-point attempts (finishing 46% while hoisting 43% of their shots as threes) kept the game within reach.
Jason Chappell played his role perfectly while not posting anything great on the stat sheet, he frustrated Oden all night and cause him to draw an early 2nd foul in the first half. Ohio St. continues its treacherous schedule (already playing at the top 3 teams in the nation) while hosting an extremely strong Tennessee team.


Clemson 87 NC St. 76

Clemson continued its reign as the last unbeaten by getting a quality, mistake-free win at NC St. The Tigers only turned the ball over 8 times in a 68 possession game while forcing 17 from the Wolfpack, for a 25% TO percentage. They also shot well from three (52%) while posting 63.5% eFG and a solid 1.28 points-per-possession. NC St. was almost as hot with 1.11 ppp on 63% eFG, but turning over the ball on a quarter of the possessions just doesn't help the cause.

Evansville 54 Mizzou St. 106

Missouri St., with help from Northern Iowa's loss to Illinois St. brought itself into a tie for first in the MVC with a complete offensive and defensive shellacking of Evansville. The Bears offense scored 1.55 points a possession!!! Yes, you heard it right. 57% 3pt shooting with 73% eFG numbers coupled with 25 assists on 63 shots. Sharing means points in this game. ***TEMPO-FREE ALERT*** The Bears "only" had 9 offensive rebound to the Aces 10 o-boards. Were they beat on the offensive glass???? You must unlearn what you have learned master Luke. Because of the Bears tremendous shooting, there just weren't that many opportunities, or "at-bats" for them to grab an offensive board. But the few misses that they did have (23), they secured 39% of those; an extremely strong percentage of second chances. On the other end, Evansville's "better" 10 rebounds came on 38 misses, for only a 23% offensive rebounding "batting average". Onward goes the Tempo-free revolution!!!!!! No wonder Evansville only could manage .79 points a possession.


Other lights:

22. Gators continue their stronghold in the Gainesville with almost identical statistical numbers of Arkansas, but slightly more 3 pointers. Ahh, as Dickie V would say "the power of the three babayyyy!!!"
7345. Air Force outscores New Mexico 41-18 in the second half to overcome a 15 point deficit at the half.
433. Notre Dame wins a close one. Joining the Ducks in trying to reverse last season's trend

Coming soon...
Fanatical looks back at who's "improved" from last season. How wrong were we a month ago?

Madness in Madtown....

Much has been written, people are pumped, so we will just enjoy the show tonight.

The Second Season arrives....sorry I'm late

It's been a crazy past couple of weeks. Now that my feet are back in place and I'm not going anywhere for a while, let TFS proceed!
Conference season is now in full swing and we've already seen some riveting matchups and statistical tempo-free abnormalities.
Some highlights of the past weekend or so in complete universe-chaotic subnormal random order:

1. Ducks a quakin' -
Just 2 days ago, the Ducks of Oregon gave up a colossal 47% of UCLA's missed shots back to the Bruins for second chances, yet still mostly held a 8-9 point lead throughout until narrowly escaping with a dramatic shot and defensive hold to upset the number one team in the nation. Being in attendance, I can fully back Kenpom's praise of the Duck's Mary Leunen. A complete presence on the floor on the defensive end, with tremendous position holding and rebounding ability coupled with great hands and smart eyes on the offensive end. Like he said, his stats will never rise to the top (18 points, 7 boards with 1.13 ppws and 15% rebounding % on both ends), but his effort is a joy to watch in person.

2. Holding serve -
Big MVC win down in Cedar Falls, Iowa for Northern Iowa over the Salukis of Southern Illinois. The movers and shakers of the MVC have to hold serve on their home court this year (Northern Iowa spoiled Wichita St's hopes of that on 12/30), and the Panthers somehow notched a win by nailing their numerous free throw attempts (22 of 29 vs. 9 of 13 for S. Ill) and by keeping their turnovers low (16%) as they've done all season.

3. Hoggin the SEC-
After the two Texas school losses, the Arkansas is back on track after winning 4 straight before their big game in Gainesville on Tuesday. The Hogs held 'Bama to .82 points a possession on 38.7% eFG and forcing a 20% turnover rate. Meanwhile on the offensive end, they shot well (56.6%) and kept their turnovers extremely low (only 7 in a 74 possession game). A good primer for the "big one" (see variations on words starting with Buck) tomorrow night, check out Hogs-Gators for a high-flying SEC matchup at 7 eastern on the Uno.

4. UCanned
Trying to make sense of the linkage here:
Uconn was beaten by LSU by more than double digits, who was beaten by as much against Washington, who lost by roughly the same margin to Gonzaga, who lost by that margin to a slew of teams, let's say Virginia, who lost by that to Utah, who lost by that to Northwestern, who lost by that to Penn St who lost by that to Seton Hall, who lost by double digits to Providence, who lost by that to Brown who of course lost by 10 to Albany, who brings it all back together, because they lost to U Conn by 31.
What does this mean? Either the universe is going to implode upon itself in the next 5 minutes or we've got yet another unpredictable college season (duh, isn't that every season). But look at what happens when the Huskies finally venture out from their friendly confines of the home court.
After averaging 1.1 points a possession and 51.5% eFG this season, Uconn managed .67 ppp, on dreadful 33% eFG with 18% 3pt shooting against Big Baby and the Tigers.
A long Big East road for them indeed.

5. Hokies enact revenge-
Last year's heartbreaker (depending on what side you were on) was made right for the Hokies in their ugly (on Duke's end) but successful upset bid in Cameron. V Tech limited their turnovers, while Duke continued to spark their own demise with 22 turnovers in a 70 possession game, for a high-flying 31% to rate. Puke! Paulus continued his butter fingers by coughing up 6 of those with only 18 minutes of playing time. Duke shot well (54% efg) but obviously, the turnovers were in far too great of numbers to overcome.

Others of note (since I'm still catching up. Still no order)

812. Wazzu a force in Eastern Washington against the Sun State schools.
23. Texas and Durant were cruising in their 80 possession game blowout in Colorado
54. Air Force continues....
743. The Orangemen laid waste to Marquette in Milwaukee in a turnover-infested bloodbath (26% for the winners, 30% for the losers) in a high-paced 77 possession game. 43 turnovers in all.
434. Indy's solid home win to stay out of the Big Ten early-weekend-cellar
253. Stanford's crazy last-second win against Virginia. 14 lead-changes with 53 total free throws. Produces a true who's who of who's beaten who.

Plenty more, but let's start

almost there...

Still out, but in the meantime, peruse this required reading.
Back on tap Monday, January 8th.

trippin...

Not available to post at this time.
Back next week. Sorry for the wait.

Pac-10 Putting Some Bigger Wins on the Board

Teams from the Pac-10 had a couple of "statement" wins last night no doubt.
Arizona kept Memphis in check at home with a balanced attack inside the arc. Memphis was in foul trouble early on, and had to rely on the double-digit scoring efforts of its bench players just to keep it close.

**Update. Pac 10 Tempo Free Stats are now up here

The Huskies made the largest noise last night, jumping out ahead of LSU early and never looking back. In what "looked" like a fast game, with Washington running and gunning all game showed up as moderate on paper at 71 possessions. This is where you have to look a little deeper at the numbers to get a better feel of the game if you hadn't watched it. Both teams were tremendous on the offensive glass, or horrendous on the defensive glass, depending on how you look at it. The Huskies pulled in 50% of their own misses while LSU gathered an almost-equally strong 39%. So, while shots were being hoisted in the 70 shot range, a high number that usually translates into a high 70 or even 80 possession game, the constant stream of offensive boards limited the amount of possessions that showed up on paper.
Spencer Hawes vs. Big Baby stats with 30 minutes of playing time for Hawes vs. 37 for Davis:

.	Davis	Hawes
Points	8	20
Orebs	5	4
Drebs	4	8
PPWS	.66	1.28

I didn't give Kevin Durant much credit earlier in the season. Still unsure with two sub-par performances against Texas St. and LSU the last week, but last night's line helps his cause:

28 points, 4 O boards, 9 total, for 1.31 PPWS and a 16% rebounding rate on both the offensive and defensive ends.

Wisconsin and Georgia Have Passed Their Tests

Madtown has been waiting a few years for this from Brian Butch. Quite a line: 27 points on 11 field goal attempts, 11 boards with 4 offensive, 3 assists with zero turnovers for an incredible 1.62 PPWS, 14% offensive rebounding percentage and a goliath 37% rebounding percentage. Butch probably won't keep up numbers like this, but being able show that he is indeed capable of a game of this caliber, definitely puts some merry holiday thoughts in Badger fans' minds.
Wisconsin also scored over 1.24 points per possession in their game against Pitt while only turning it over 8 times in a 72 possession game, for a minuscule 11% turnover rate.

Not to be outdone, the "other" Big Ten title contender in Ohio St. walloped the Bearcats while holding them to 27.4% efg and only .71 points per possession, only making 19 shots on 73 attempts. Ouch. Mike Conley was the "leader" of the Buckeyes, with 7 assists, and zero turnovers. Infinite assist-to-turnover percentage, it has been done!!!

The Zags lost to a now-legitimately-tested-Georgia team despite shooting almost 70% efg. But the Bulldogs held a monster edge on the offensive glass, hauling in 44% of their misses, more than making up for the 10% difference in shooting. The Zags also turned the ball over a dreadful 27% of the time, almost double the turnovers of Georgia. It was a much faster game than both teams are accustomed to at 78 possessions, so the high percentage shooting was all the more impressive.

Some other high-profile games to wrap up the holiday season. Posts will be a little sporadic until January.

Thanks for checking

Tempo Free Stats Analysis....Thank you Andy Glockner

This is exactly the type of story that TFS hopes to see on a major sports news site. The Tempo-Free Metro area just picked up another 'burb.

The Teacher Wants Improvement

On to the ever-more important defensive analysis of the biggest gainers on the defensive end thus far....


Oklahoma (5-3) - Their current adjusted .78 points per possession defensively is 2nd best in the nation and .18 better than last year. They are limiting opponents to 40.2% from inside the arc, and also are only allowing 25% of opponents misses to be rebounded by themselves. Taylor Griffin is leading the pack while he himself is grabbing 25% of opponents misses while he's on the floor. What's hindering this stellar defense (that limited Memphis to barely a point a possession in their loss) from posting a better record is a turnover-prone offense that's giving away almost a quarter of their possessions.

Butler (10-1) - The Dawgs don't post stellar numbers in any category but currently stand at allowing under .84 PPP, almost .17 better than last year. A big key has been improving their 2 pt defense, reducing that number from an almost-worst 52% last year to a more respectable 45%. Opponents are shooting a below average 27.7%, but as Pomeroy stated, that number usually normalizes more often than 2 pt shooting, because of the nature of the shot.

Michigan St. (9-2) - The Spartans stand at .805 PP, over .156 better than last year's good but not great defense. Their inside-the-arc defense is superb, allowing 38.5% shooting on 2's and only giving up 25% of opponents' missed shots to rebounds. As a comparison, they were giving up 47.2% shooting on 2 pointers. Like last year, they don't force turnovers, only 20% this year currently, but Drew Naymick is leading the defensive effort while blocking 10.5% of opponents' shots while he's in the game.

Missouri (9-1) - Shaving .145 points off their opponents' scoring rate to .859 ppp has been attributed to a tremendous turnover-forcing defense. They are currently getting 28.7% of their opponents' possessions to end in a turnover, while grabbing a steal on 16% of every possession. Last year they were only getting 21% turnover rate and half as many steals. JuCo transfer Stefhon Hannah has been a gem defensively, as he's second in the nation in total steals (40) and 4th in the nation tempo-free style, as he's ending almost 7% of all opponents' possessions by way of steals.

Oregon (8-0) - One of the big surprises of this team is their vastly improved defense (.839 ppp, for a .119 improvement), an element lacking the past couple of seasons. Previously mentioned in the referenced Pomeroy ESPN article, the Ducks have also been fortunate with opponents' lack of 3pt shooting prowess, at only 26.2% vs 35.6% last year. That number should creep closer to last year's number over time, but what I feel is a good mark for improvement is their increased tenacity in forcing turnovers. They're currently 5th best in the nation, forcing almost a 3rd of all possessions to end in a turnover, compared to 20% last year. The question mark obviously is the higher than average 48.7% shooting they're giving up on 2 pointers. Early games against USC and UCLA will answer some questions.

Gonzaga (9-2) - .111 ppp improvement over last year thus far, to a 43rd best .900 from a defense that ranked 178th last year. They're only giving up 43.7% (vs. 48% last year) shooting on 2 pointers however, a la the Spartans, they don't force opponents' turnovers (only 18.2% this year). They limit opponents' second chances by giving up a respectable 26.6% offensive rebounding rate compared to 31.2% last year. The schedule no less has been extremely brutal up to this point, and thus their numbers appear as if they can only improve. Good signs for March...

Other teams to watch for:

Georgia (too early to tell)
Miss. St.
Purdue
Virginia Tech
Tennesse
Indiana
Central Florida
USC
Evansville

Putting Last Year in the Trunk

Taking a look at some early season teams who have made significant improvements to their overall offensive efficiency.
Granted, the games have been against non-conference opponents and we are comparing year-to-date numbers to end-of-last year numbers, but still, improvements this large (over a .1 point per possession increase, or on average almost 7 points a game at an average tempo) merits some press:

Air Force (10-1)- The team that has already garnered plenty of press here and around the nation, was already efficient last year (1.12 points per possession), however they currently run at a tops-in-the-nation 1.29 PPP while shooting 63.5 eFG % and 43.6% from three. Dan Nwaelele leads the way with 77.7% shooting but all five guys with over 60% of the minutes are shooting over 55% eFG.
Their 16.9% turnover percentage is sublime and they've improved this much while only allowing .02 PPP more on defense from last year.

Purdue (8-1) - Two words on the improvement. Carl Landry. His return this season has helped them add .11 points a possession as he has been involved in over 31% of all possessions, is shooting 68.6% from 2, and is grabbing 13.4% of available offensive boards while he's on the court. Purdue's offensive efficiency has improved from 99.3 to 110.3 while getting some good early season wins against an unbeaten Missouri team, Virginia and a better-than-their-record shows Oklahoma team. Granted the Big Ten season will invariably bring that efficiency down, but it's a good sign to know that Carl Landry has helped their offense click this year.
Their D is also limiting their opponents to an even better .136 points less per possession than last year, but we'll save that for later.

Washington St. (9-1)- Tony Bennett has conjured up some magic out in Pullman, WA thanks to a team that protects the ball infinitely better than last year's team while improving their points per possession by over .105 to 1.05 currently. They're turning it over 18.3% this year compared to over 22% last year, with Derrick Low being the key for the team; dropping his rate from a ghastly 27.1% to a guard-position-exquisite 10.2%!! Combine their offensive turnover improvement to their defensive turnover improvement (3.9% more forced) and that's around a 5 point swing in their favor on average. They've also improved greatly from three-land, shooting 42.1% currently compared to 33.2% last year. With quality wins over Gonzaga and UAB, the Cougs are in good hands. Their last test before the Pac-10 will be against San Diego St on December 21st.


Defense will be dabbled in tomorrow.


Other teams of note:

Winthrop
Georgia
Xavier
Western Kentucky
Maryland
Arizona

Basketball??? This is Pony Racing!!!

A game I was going to post about but forgot, I'll elaborate on today:

Virginia Military Institute currently ranks 1st in possessions per game at a blood pressure jolting 93.2 pos/game. On Saturday, they went up against a Mercer team that also likes to run, at a more realistic 72.6 pos/game. Both teams averaged under a point a possession, but plugging in the numbers, the score predicted was totaling over 180. Sadly, Vegas did not post any lines as I would have loved to see what they would have listed it at. Final score: Mercer 105 VMI 103. Taking us back to the Loyola days.
Some stats from the game to digest:
1. VMI took 94 shots!! Sinking only 34 total, while putting up over 51% to the three and shooting 25% from 3. In most NCAA games, the two teams involved take just over 100 shots combined.
2. Mercer turned the ball over 30 times. Now here's where Tempo Free Stats is key. 30 times is an astronomical amount, no doubt, but in a game this fast (106 possessions!!!!), that's still a bad but not incongruously bad 28% turnover percentage. 30 times in a 70 possession game would definitely be horrendous.
3. On the other side, VMI only turned it over 12 times, for an 11% turnover percentage. Brilliant!! Poor shooting obviously killed them and helped Mercer overcome that large turnover margin.
4. And Mercer had all 5 starters in double digits thanks to 61% shooting between them.

Sadly, only 2,200 people were in attendance to watch the slugfest.

Additional scrumptious note on VMI's prestissimo pace: the next fasted team in the land is averaging 81 possessions a game, 12 less than the Keydets.

Reshuffling the Deck...

A & M - Defense wasn't as sharp as "expected", as UCLA lofted up 55.9% eFG shooting and as expected, didn't force a large amount of turnovers, with only 18% TO% on 12 turnovers in a 66 possession game.

Wichita St. - Wyoming
Was right along with what I was expecting, with the Shockers getting a solid road victory and easily covering the over at a score of 83-69. They forced 22 turnovers in a game played faster than both teams were used to, at a moderately fast 76 possessions.
The Shockers now hold some impressive victories early on in the season to give them a solid base for a tourney resume.

Butler - Indy St.
Well, that over was covered with no problem, but Butler was on the short end of the score for the first time this year, 72-64. They gave up 1.13 ppp, after averaging .79 this season. Indiana St. shot 55.4% eFG and 43.8% from three, while only turning the ball over 8 times in a 63 possession game. The interesting thing with Butler, is that they are obviously a three-point shooting team, yet they haven't shot that well at all from beyond the arc (32% overall while hoisting an 11th most 47.1% of their shots from three).
This game exposed that weakness as they only shot 28.6% while taking over 52% of their shots from three!!
A troll is afoot!

Washington
Got the type of opponent that everyone wanted them to finally face, and wow, is Gonzaga good. Washington's D was suspect, and it showed as they gave up over 1.23 points per possession and only forcing 8 measly turnovers in a fast 78 possession game. Raivio led the team with 25 points, but it was Bouldin that was efficiently effective posting 1.62 points per weighted shot on 9 of 12 shooting overall with 2 freethrows.


SDSU and Kentucky to follow along with bonus Dairy state coverage and more

Vegas by the Numbers

quick post before the rest of the games get started for the weekend...

Some lines that jump out today:

Butler -9 at Indiana St. O/U stands at 116, and with Butler running at 1.18 ppp, and Indy St. defending at .96, this expected 63 possession game should finish around 120-124. Butler has less of a reason to slow it down below their common pace, as Indy St. is only around 1.02 ppp.
We'll call it, Butler 66, Indiana St. 54

Wichita St. -7 at Wyoming. O/U stands at 135. The shockers are rolling in at 1.12 ppp while Wyoming is simply not limiting it's opponents, with an awful 1.11 ppp given up. The shockers may be able to open up the pace a little more than their current 65 as their offense should over-power anything that the Cowboys try to throw at them.
Let's put it on the over around 147 points, Shockers 80 Cowyboys 67

Or I could just be completely wrong

No other over/unders really jump out, however the Gonzaga-Washington game is at 166 currently. Yikes. They should get close, but will probably fall short, around 155-158, with the Huskies at least working within the 7 points that they're currently getting.

Enjoy the weekend....

Is it Blue or Red?

Back to 10th grade chemistry this weekend.
A slurry of solid basketball action going on this weekend. Some true litmus test games for a few teams, or simply a continuation of a tough early schedule for others.
Without much of an intro, here's a brief look at some interesting matchups:

Litmus Test Teams:

Texas A & M - A match-up of two high quality defensi with above-average offenses. A & M limits it's opponents to a measly 36.9% eFG while forcing a turnover on over 27% of possessions while UCLA stands at 46.6% and 27.5% respectively.
Both hold their opponents to under .9 points a possession.
While A & M really has only faced one tough test in LSU, hence some slightly inflated numbers, they still held the Tigers to barely a point per possession. UCLA isn't terrible efficient on offense (110) for a number 1 team, but if A & M can put a firm hold on the Bruins scoring quad of Collison, Afflalo, Shipp and Mbah a Moute, it should give us a better picture at how good this D really is.

Washington - Only test so far has been a home win against Northern Iowa in which they didn't shoot all that well (46.4% efg) and turned the ball over 17 times in a slower, more Northern Iowa-style pace of 70 possessions. Otherwise, the schedule has been a smorgasboard of easy treats all while staying home in Seattle. Leaving home to visit what should be a rabid bunch of fans against a team that is playing some sound, balanced basketball in Gonzaga will give us a clean look at the Huskies. While it won't be a defensive battle, I'll be interested to see if Washington can get it's offense running more efficiently as it's barely hanging around 1 point scored per possession while giving up .94 on the defensive end.

San Diego St - A surprising loss to Western Michigan leaves us scratching our heads over this early season gem from the MWC. However, the main cause of the loss (almost a third of their possessions ended in a turnover) isn't as strange as they've only managed to stay at the middle of the pack in that department (22.7%). Overall, their defense over the season hasn't been superb, at 1.01 PPP, and they haven't rebounded defensively all that well (giving up 31.1% of opponent's misses). With Arizona clicking in all areas of offensive production (1.25 ppp, 57% eFG, 18% TO rate), SDSU is going to have to play far above it's current level to hold off the Wildcats at home. A better performance, win or lose should help us see whether they have potential to compete for an at-large bid.


Continuation of Tough Early Schedule Teams:

Gonzaga - As previously mentioned, the 'Zags keep the resume-building pre-conference internship rolling along with their annual match-up against the school on the "wrong" side of the Cascades. Should be a great match up of Heytvelt and Raivio vs. Appleby and Hawes with Pondexter putting on a show of his own

Kentucky - With games against UCLA, Memphis and UNC, it's no wonder that the 'Cats have 3 losses against them this early in the year. Next up is what should be a tough match-up for their offense. Indiana brings in a defense averaging only .83 ppp against it while holding shooters to 42.7% eFG, led by DJ White who is blocking 9.4% of opponent's shots while he's on the floor. Randolph Morris was a beast against Hansbrough in the UNC game, it will be intriguingly interesting to see how Morris will be able to match up against White and the much smaller Hoosiers.


More analysis later today.....

Quick note

This site, obviously was quickly put up, just to get some thoughts, info, ramblings up on the web by the start of the season. With a little more time, the plan is to re-design the look and feel....wait, plan??? There's no plan with this. But, I at least hope to put more effort into trimmings and side dishes of the site.
In due time, when in Rome....

True test..

Something has to give in the 'Bama - Notre Dame matchup tonight. As previously stated, the Tide have been fortunate to come up against poor shooting to offset a marginal offense. The Irish are hitting buckets around the 58 eFG% mark, so where the expected 68 to 70 possession game ends up, should be a good watermark for 'Bama's "D". If the Irish can give Rob Kurz more shots (only shooting 18.9% of theirs), he should produce more points as he's hitting 71% eFG.
Over/under stands at 140, which could go either way. 70-64 is to be expected, in ND's favor. Calling the under.

Brief Sabbatical

A mixture of post-turkey depression order and other such distractions prevented daily postings.
Onward and upward.....


Current state of MCB:
Some brilliant games, quite a few surprise upsets, pre-season favorites starting out slowly, early season sleepers sprinting out of the gate, etc, etc, etc. In other words, your basic November, just with different actors in the play (welcome MVC!).
Congrats to the ACC for keeping all 12 teams ranked above 100 in offensive efficiency.
SEC is close behind with only 2 out of the top 100. Florida, has played well even with two losses, ranking 2nd offensively and 4th defensively (126.3 and 79.1!).
On that note, and of equal importance, to back up the early season praise , the Pac10, against common stereotype, has 8 teams ranked above 100 in defensive efficiency, with the biggest surprise of all being annually defensive deficient Oregon Ducks, ranked 6th at 80.3.

Teams that are probably better than given credit:
Nevada - Fazekas possibly best all-around player
Air Force - shooting the lights out, playing solid D, all while controlling the pace
Oklahoma - pay no attention to that home loss tonight, running clean enough to rebound
Notre Dame - Maryland was no joke, efficient on both ends

Not quite as clean than credit given:
Alabama - opponents are shooting poorly (38%) to help, but no forcing of TO's (only 16%) and not playing even good offense (ranked 84th) against sub-par early schedule
Duke - Maybe not great credit given anyway, but able to survive so far with poor offense, but stiffling defense aided by an extremely slow pace of 65 possessions per game. Turnovers are killing the offense led by Paulus, who stands at turning the ball over a blood-curdling 43% of his possessions.
Syracuse - two recent losses were justified as they've been running at 108 offense efficiency and 91 defense, nothing to put a gold star on. One bright note is that they stand at 2nd in block percentage, with Darryl Watkins leading the charge with an impressive 17.4% of oppenents shots blocked while he is on the floor.

From here, I'll start keeping up with daily snippets from various games.


Random stat of eye-opening potential:

Congrats to Demar Dotson of Southern Miss who has hauled in a mind-boggling 29% of potential offensive rebounds. If an opponent's shot clangs off the iron, almost a third of the time, the ball is landing in Dotson's hands. By comparison, the other top players are hovering around 19%. Hands like tractor-beams!!!!!

crazy scary efficiency...

Air Force line:
143.4 offensive efficiency. They scored 94 points, on ONLY 65 possessions! Shooting 70% eFG and only turning the ball over a petrifying 9% of the time. On the other side, they forced Wake into 40% shooting and only an 88.5 offensive efficiency rating. Hence the blowout of 94-58. Obliterated the over!

Ohio St-UNC game lived up to it's billing. Both teams were highly efficient (122 for OSU and 135 for UNC) while still keeping the pace fast. Even though the game stood at 74 possessions, it felt faster in the way that both teams pushed the ball throughout the game. OSU matched Air Force's low turnover percentage, only turning it over 6% of possessions. In the end, UNC's 20 free-throw attempt margin helped seal the win.
Both of these teams played a far more mature and efficient game than I think most people expected.
Also killed the over.

Place them bets...

Wake Forest at Airforce. The over/under stands at a paltry 132. With the Falcons running at 130 off efficiency, at a nice 59 possession pace, this game shouldn't have a problem getting into the 140's.
Wake's D isn't anything (107 efficiency) to look at either with opponents shooting close to 50%.

With the two big boys going tonight, it's tough to forecast the total points, as their efficiency numbers are skewed from blow-out wins. At a currently posted 160, it doesn't look like they'll beat it, more like scores in the 140-150's, but if UNC gets a runnin', it could eclipse the 80's for both teams.

Interesting addendum to stats of last night:
Northwestern helped chalk up a W for the Big Ten last night, despite giving up 50% of Miami's missed shots back to them in the form of offensive boards for the 'Canes. NU also only grabbed 18% of their own misses. Shooting 65.8% eFG and only turning the ball over 16% of the time will overcome most decrepit showings on the glass.

quick recap

Sure Shawn Pruitt led the Illini in points at 18 in their (gasp!) home loss to an extremely strong Maryland team, but the huge stat of the night was his 34% defensive rebounding percentage. All doing this with only 25 minutes on the floor.
Maryland holding Illinois to 38% eFG helped put an end to the 51 non-conference game home winning streak.

Florida State's athleticism cost them as they became careless with the ball, often resulting from charges or lazy turnovers, posting a 85 offensive efficiency.
Wisconsin ran away from them late in the second and easily covered the conservative (yet valid) over/under of 133, at a total score of 147.

Duke-Indy was an ugly defensive slugfest (all in the interpretation) with turnovers occuring 25% of the time for both teams along with sub 45% shooting. Duke's 2:1 free-throw attempt margin gave an added boost to their bottom line. 105 on the total points on 66 possessions!


Those boys down in Gainsville just don't play nice. Holding Southern University to a 40 offensive efficiency from a 35% turnover rate and only 24% eFG. Just wrong! But, gold star award goes to the Jaguars reserve forward Chike Ekweozor, who, with only 7 minutes on the floor, and 12 possessions to work with, led the team in points (6), offensive board percentage (30%) and 67% shooting on three shots. Keep that up, and with a full game to work with, he'll be pouring in plus-30 points a game.

Apparently the Kansas-Florida matchup was still occurring as the Jayhawks attempted to match the Gators' feats against their own version of a winless team.
Florida ended up winning the rematch as Kansas could only hold Dartmouth to a 49 offensive efficiency rating on 28% shooting. With an uncle as an alumnus, I felt compelled to at least get the Big Green a spot on this page. I just wish it was under better circumstances.


Mas juegos manana.

BigAcc Challenge

After quite a tasty little 4 day weekend of hoops, we can look ahead at the BigAcc challenge, now one game done with the NC St victory over the number 2 football team in the nation.

Butler of course was a big surprise of the week. How effective were they in their first seven games?
As we all know they prefer the 3 point shot (46.4% of their shots) however they haven't been shooting it all that well (only 33.1%). They've made up for it with great ball control (14.6% TO rate) and limiting the possessions in the game (a tepid 59 per game, almost last in Division I).
With a weaker Horizon league than in years past with Udub-Milwaukee being down this year and only 2 other teams still with winning records, look for Butler to continue to press their pace on others and walk away at worst second in the league. But, unfortunately, that's why there's still the rest of the season.

Kansas-Florida
Ugly first 25 minutes turned into a beauty. Not much more to say, as you've already read enough about it.

Every MVC team is at least .500 or better. Yikes.

San Diego St. could be right in the mix of the Mountain West with Air Force and Wyoming.
On their way to a 7-0 start, including a big win over Cal, they've been shooting 56.7 eFG while still keeping the pace at a brisk 73.8 possessions a game.


Tonight:

A little creepy that Florida St and Wisconsin post the exact same offensive and defensive efficiencies at 108 and 92 respectively. Bucky is favored by 11, but look for a more athletic FSU team to at least give Wisconsin fits throughout the game.

No other over/unders are jumping out as high or low. As you can see by the previous predictions, the forecasting on these is still a work in progress as I try and tweak how to weight each team's overall strength into the mix in order to dictate tempo.
Also, one obvious fact is that it is so early in the season, so a team's stats can easily be skewed further from their "expected" play.

moving on...

continuation....

Georgia Tech attemped 50 free throws on the way to securing a valiant comeback against an extremely strong Memphis team.
Any game with 80 possessions always opens up the possibility of a large comeback, and Georgia Tech took full advantage of it to slowly crawl back into the game in the second half. Even though G Tech was out shot by almost a 10% effective FG percentage, they made up for with 10 extra offensive boards and a healthy 13 free throw attempt margin.
The over/under on this game was 160!! And they still beat it by 17.

Games of note tonight:

Tennessee runs, Butler uhh, suns. (Rhyming is tough) We'll see who wins the possession battle as Tennessee brings in a 78 pos/game avg vs. Butlers clipping 57 pos/game pace. With Butler running efficiently (130 ppp currently), look for this game to eclipse the over/under of 137. 140's is more likely.

Kentucky is overly efficient at 130 ppp but lacking slightly on D (105 ppp). Memphis, as we all know will run until they turn off the lights, so with both teams averaging the mid-70's in possessions, I don't see how this game can come under the posted 153 point total put up by the bookies. 160's, here we come!

UNC-Zags
Zags are almost at the bottom in the percentage of 3 pointers that they take (22.3), however that number may change significantly as they go up a much stronger UNC team which will push them further out towards the arc than they've been accustomed to.


Out of town for a few days, back on Sunday.

Classic Tuesday Night

Thoughts and observations from a great night of roundball, with a dash of Hawaii:

Duke vs. Marquette
Picture Dominic James last year. Now picture him a few notches better with more maturity. This kid is scary to watch how he can take control of a game and produce opportunities for himself and his teammates. Not only did he post a tasty 1.40 PPWS, he dished out 7 assists to only one TO. On the other side of the ball, Josh McRoberts struggled ignormantly (so much that I had to make up a word), even though he constantly wanted the ball down the stretch. There was a span of about 5 minutes where Duke's offense consisted of feeding the ball to McRoberts, only to see him do a lazy drop-step and ending up with a weak fade away clanker. It was an ugly team-leading 15 points, as he cruised along at .75 PPWS with 3 TO's against 4 assists.


Gotta run, more recap tomorrow.

Tajuan Porter

Much has been made lately, and deservedly so, of freshmen sensation Tajuan Porter of the Oregon Ducks. After hearing rumblings from practice and the early exhibition games in which he was lighting up teams for 30 points notice was taken.
The early games for the ducks have been composed of cakefests in the friendly confines of Mac Court.
A true test came last night against Rice in Houston. With the Ducks trailing 60-52 with 1:32, and Tajuan Porter and Chamberlin Oguchi shooting a combined oh-fer on three's for the night, the following unfolded:

1:32 Aaron Brooks made Two Point Jumper. 52-60
1:29 Oregon Full Timeout. 52-60
1:29 Foul on Aaron Brooks 52-60
1:29 52-60 Chris Hagan missed Free Throw.
1:29 52-60 Rice Defensive Rebound.
1:29 52-61 Chris Hagan made Free Throw.
Then:
1:21 Tajuan Porter made Three Point Jumper. 55-61
1:17 Foul on Tajuan Porter 55-61
1:17 55-62 Chris Hagan made Free Throw.
1:17 55-63 Chris Hagan made Free Throw.
1:08 Maarty Leunen made Two Point Layup. 57-63
0:56 Foul on Aaron Brooks 57-63
0:56 57-64 Chris Hagan made Free Throw.
0:56 57-65 Chris Hagan made Free Throw.
0:50 Tajuan Porter made Three Point Jumper. 60-65
0:48 Oregon Full Timeout. 60-65
0:40 60-65 Marius Craciun missed Two Point Layup.
0:40 Oregon Defensive Rebound. 60-65
0:34 Aaron Brooks made Three Point Jumper. 63-65
0:23 Foul on Bryce Taylor 63-65
0:23 63-66 Rodney Foster made Free Throw.
0:23 63-66 Rodney Foster missed Free Throw.
0:23 Aaron Brooks Defensive Rebound. 63-66
0:23 Tajuan Porter made Three Point Jumper. 66-66
0:18 66-66 Rice Full Timeout.
0:07 66-66 Rice Full Timeout.
0:02 66-66 Rice Full Timeout.
0:00 End of the 2nd Half.

In overtime, The Ducks ran away from them, sealing a spectacular 9 point comeback in the final minute and a half.
In short, after struggling all night, Porter made three absolutely clutch three pointers on the road to keep his team alive and help them go on to win a game that last year, they typically would have lost.

How far this four guard line-up for the Ducks can go, the ol' wait and see method will be in effect.

Mr. Carmody...

Fitting that the slowest two teams currently in the nation seem to be annual victors in the qwest for 1950's cageball.
Princeton and the Princeton-inspired offense of Bill Carmody at Northwestern University continue to tredge through the waters of NCAA play at a brisk 51.5 and 55.8 pos/game, respectfully.
With all of this history behind them, it seems surpising that these sultans of sluggish serendipity wouldn't meet more often. I would pony up my 8 bucks just to see if they could break the 45 mark.
Sadly this pace hasn't produced the high octane offenses such as previously mentioned Air Force (running at 60 pos/game) as they're both treading just below 100 PPP.

NU has a lot more talent than previous years with some top Chicago-area freshmen in the mix so it will just be a matter of time to see if they catch onto the Carmody-offensive scheme and help to raise that O-efficiency number.

Princeton returns a majority of their minutes from a team that really turned around mid-season.

long weekend, short week

Ahh, some days off to enjoy the finer things in life. Plenty of bball to get you through the eating.

Musings from the weekend:

Georgetown getting knocked off by Old D. Why? Well, they shot better, 55.3% eFG vs. 50.9%, but those turnovers, 14 at a rate of 22.5% vs. 9.6% will usually negate a slight edge in shooting.

What's happened to the Panthers of UW-Milwaukee, the tourney gem of the past two years?
Well, coach Rob Jeter put them up against three last year post-season teams in UAB, Northern Iowa, Michigan and a surging undefeated Washington St. team for 4 of their first 5 games.
Going from eFG of 48% to 40% will do it, along with dropping your offensive efficiency to 95.1 from 108. Winning the Horizon now seems like the only way to get back into the dance this year.
How well did Nick Fazekas shoot for Nevada in their win over Ark-Pine Bluff, thus becoming Nevada's career scoring leader? Well, 90.9 eFG% while shooting 9 for 11 from 2 and and 2 for 2 from three. Posting a 1.81 PPWS. Yeehaa!!!!


Looking forward to a shoot-out with Winthrop and Maryland. If Winthrop wants to run with Maryland (81 possessions/game average), they should be able to keep up offensively (120 points per possession) vs. the Terrapins 107. We should see total points in the 130's regardless.


Meanwhile, on the other end, the Air Force-Duke matchup could go either way. Air Force is at 123.7 ppp right now, while both of the teams have D efficiencies in the mid-60's. Point totals under 100 are very realistic. But Air Force was able to run with the Illini in the first round 145 point slugfest since they're offense has the ability to hum on all cylinders.

A good night of roundball to start off the short week no less.

a little nugget....

A good win for MSU over a very very young inexperienced yet athletic Texas team (smells a little last-year Kansas to me). Texas obviously was 5 seperate people who happened to be wearing the same jerseys. Barnes I have a feeling will change that a la Bill Self of '05-'06 and you will see a better Texas team come January and February.
Watching Durant, while posting a .94 PPWS, I was more unimpressed with his laziness on D. His game seemed more NBA already.

Ok, so I already violated my first creed and wrote about the "major" game of the night.
I apologize. It may happen again. First night jitters....

It begins....

Utterly obsessed and intrigued by all things tempo-free, this site hopes to spread the wealth that one encounters after their first all-encompassing experience that is tempo-free stats.
A big thanks to kenpom.com and bigtenwonk.blogspot.com for the data and for greatly expanding the influence of tempo-free stats on the NCAA basketball landscape.

While recognizing the quality and composure of the sites already out there, this site will merely be an addendum to what you currently read. I hope to find those things that, while not on the front page, deserve just as much care and love from you, the bored desk jockey trying to burn up the last few hours of the afternoon.
It may be taking a different angle at the biggest game of the night, or simply a look at a stat that makes you tilt your head and say "wha?"
If it's part of college basketball, hopefully it's here.

With that, I'll wrap it up for now. Thanks for stopping by.

Remember, ingrain in your mind: Tempo Free Stats.

The revolution continues....