*This is a post I worked up last year and now I've updated with the 2007 numbers. It's just a helpful guide to see what it takes, flat-out numbers-wise to produce a Final Four team and eventual champion. Picking that random 5-12 upset may score you bonus points, but you'll never be in contention unless you've got the champion, finalists and final four nailed down. *
This takes the stats off of kenpom.com and gives us the basic tempo-free breakdowns of the past 4 tournaments' teams. Obviously, as with all stats, this is isn't anywhere near the end-all be-all, just another tool in the shed to use in trying to fill out that pesky bracket better than your 10 year old neighbor kid.
The first two tables are averages for the 4 years, with the data for each year just below those tables. The first one showcases all Final Four teams and their averages. The second just looks at the top 3 seeds, to get some type of idea of what characteristics a pretender, or contender holds in the top 3 seed lines. The goal always is to get the most teams in your bracket to the final four. Hopefully, this gives a little insight as to what to look for in the "better" and "overrated" top 3 seeded teams this year.
Finalists in Bold. Champions in italics.
(Bonus statistical note: The averages are straight averages, not averages off of the raw numbers. So keep that in mind. It may render these averages completely useless. Maybe not.)
Pos: Possessions/40 minutes
Oeff: Offensive Efficiency. Points-per-possession
Deff: Defensive Efficiency.
Margin: Oeff - Deff
Efg: Effective field goal shooting percentage
TO: Turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions)
Oreb: Offensive rebounding rate (offensive rebounds per rebound opportunity)
Defg: Effective FG % allowed
Dto: Turnover rate forced
Doreb: Offensive rebounding % allowed
All Final Four Teams
|
| Pos | Oeff | Deff | Margin | EFG | TO | Oreb | Defg | Defg | Dto | Doreb |
|
| 67 | 1.19 | 0.87 | 0.32 | 55% | 20% | 36% | 46% | 46% | 22% | 30% |
Averages for the Top 3 seeds based on their finish (Ex: Final 4 - Averages for all Top 3 seeds that made the final four)
| Pos | Oeff | Deff | Margin | EFG | TO | Oreb | Defg | Defg | Dto | Doreb |
| Final 4 | 66.9 | 1.21 | 0.87 | 0.34 | 55% | 20% | 36% | 45% | 45% | 22% | 31% |
| Finalists | 67.7 | 1.2 | 0.86 | 0.33 | 55% | 20% | 36% | 45% | 45% | 22% | 30% |
| Champions | 69.7 | 1.23 | 0.87 | 0.36 | 56% | 20% | 38% | 45% | 45% | 20% | 30% |
| Didn't make Final 4 | 67.9 | 1.17 | 0.9 | 0.27 | 53% | 19% | 37% | 46% | 46% | 21% | 31% |
| Seed | 2007 | Pos | Oeff | Deff | Margin | EFG | TO | Oreb | Defg | Defg | Dto | Doreb |
| 1 | Florida | 66.8 | 1.25 | 0.87 | 0.38 | 60% | 21% | 38% | 45% | 45% | 19% | 28% |
| 1 | North Carolina | 73.1 | 1.24 | 0.86 | 0.38 | 54% | 18% | 40% | 47% | 47% | 21% | 30% |
| 1 | Kansas | 70 | 1.18 | 0.82 | 0.36 | 55% | 20% | 38% | 43% | 43% | 24% | 30% |
| 1 | Ohio St. | 65.4 | 1.24 | 0.88 | 0.36 | 54% | 17% | 35% | 47% | 47% | 20% | 31% |
| 2 | Wisconsin | 64.4 | 1.17 | 0.86 | 0.31 | 52% | 17% | 35% | 46% | 46% | 22% | 29% |
| 2 | UCLA | 64.3 | 1.17 | 0.84 | 0.33 | 54% | 18% | 33% | 48% | 48% | 23% | 30% |
| 2 | Memphis | 69.1 | 1.17 | 0.87 | 0.3 | 52% | 18% | 40% | 44% | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| 2 | Georgetown | 59.9 | 1.25 | 0.89 | 0.36 | 57% | 22% | 40% | 44% | 44% | 19% | 34% |
| 3 | Oregon | 66.9 | 1.2 | 0.93 | 0.27 | 53% | 18% | 35% | 49% | 49% | 22% | 33% |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | 63.4 | 1.18 | 0.9 | 0.28 | 53% | 18% | 37% | 46% | 46% | 19% | 32% |
| 3 | Washington St. | 60.7 | 1.13 | 0.89 | 0.23 | 52% | 16% | 27% | 46% | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| 3 | Texas A&M | 65 | 1.2 | 0.87 | 0.34 | 56% | 18% | 34% | 43% | 43% | 22% | 30% |
| Final 4 | Florida | 66.8 | 1.25 | 0.87 | 0.38 | 60% | 21% | 38% | 45% | 45% | 19% | 28% |
| Final 4 | UCLA | 64.3 | 1.17 | 0.84 | 0.33 | 54% | 18% | 33% | 48% | 48% | 23% | 30% |
| Final 4 | Georgetown | 59.9 | 1.25 | 0.89 | 0.36 | 57% | 22% | 40% | 44% | 44% | 19% | 34% |
| Final 4 | Ohio St. | 65.4 | 1.24 | 0.88 | 0.36 | 54% | 17% | 35% | 47% | 47% | 20% | 31% |
2006| Seed | 2006 | Pos | Oeff | Deff | Margin | EFG | TO | Oreb | Defg | Defg | Dto | Doreb |
| 1 | Villanova | 67.2 | 1.16 | 0.89 | 0.27 | 49% | 17% | 36% | 47% | 47% | 23% | 31% |
| 1 | Connecticut | 71.5 | 1.19 | 0.89 | 0.3 | 52% | 20% | 42% | 43% | 43% | 18% | 31% |
| 1 | Duke | 72.2 | 1.18 | 0.89 | 0.29 | 56% | 19% | 29% | 46% | 46% | 22% | 37% |
| 1 | Memphis | 72.5 | 1.12 | 0.87 | 0.25 | 51% | 21% | 41% | 43% | 43% | 23% | 30% |
| 2 | Texas | 65.8 | 1.18 | 0.88 | 0.31 | 53% | 20% | 41% | 44% | 44% | 21% | 26% |
| 2 | Tennessee | 72.8 | 1.17 | 0.95 | 0.22 | 54% | 18% | 30% | 53% | 53% | 24% | 33% |
| 2 | UCLA | 63.4 | 1.12 | 0.84 | 0.28 | 53% | 22% | 36% | 46% | 46% | 22% | 29% |
| 2 | Georgetown | 59.4 | 1.16 | 0.92 | 0.24 | 53% | 19% | 35% | 48% | 48% | 20% | 29% |
| 3 | Iowa | 66.5 | 1.04 | 0.83 | 0.2 | 49% | 22% | 31% | 44% | 44% | 21% | 28% |
| 3 | Gonzaga | 68.6 | 1.19 | 1.01 | 0.18 | 52% | 18% | 34% | 49% | 49% | 18% | 31% |
| 3 | North Carolina | 72.6 | 1.16 | 0.9 | 0.26 | 54% | 23% | 40% | 46% | 46% | 21% | 29% |
| 3 | Florida | 68.6 | 1.19 | 0.87 | 0.32 | 57% | 21% | 35% | 45% | 45% | 22% | 31% |
| Final 4 | Florida | 68.6 | 1.19 | 0.87 | 0.32 | 57% | 21% | 35% | 45% | 45% | 22% | 31% |
| Final 4 | George Mason | 64.3 | 1.09 | 0.9 | 0.19 | 54% | 20% | 30% | 44% | 44% | 20% | 30% |
| Final 4 | UCLA | 63.4 | 1.12 | 0.84 | 0.28 | 53% | 22% | 36% | 46% | 46% | 22% | 29% |
| Final 4 | Louisiana St. | 69.4 | 1.09 | 0.85 | 0.24 | 50% | 22% | 38% | 46% | 46% | 21% | 29% |
2005
| Seed | 2005 | Pos | Oeff | Deff | Margin | EFG | TO | Oreb | Defg | Defg | Dto | Doreb |
| 1 | Illinois | 64.9 | 1.23 | 0.88 | 0.35 | 56% | 17% | 34% | 47% | 47% | 22% | 29% |
| 1 | Washington | 72.9 | 1.21 | 0.95 | 0.26 | 54% | 19% | 40% | 51% | 51% | 24% | 34% |
| 1 | North Carolina | 73.7 | 1.26 | 0.88 | 0.38 | 56% | 21% | 39% | 46% | 46% | 23% | 30% |
| 1 | Duke | 68.8 | 1.16 | 0.86 | 0.3 | 52% | 19% | 37% | 42% | 42% | 22% | 35% |
| 2 | Oklahoma St. | 67.2 | 1.23 | 0.94 | 0.29 | 56% | 20% | 35% | 50% | 50% | 22% | 29% |
| 2 | Wake Forest | 70 | 1.25 | 0.96 | 0.29 | 56% | 20% | 40% | 50% | 50% | 20% | 30% |
| 2 | Connecticut | 71.7 | 1.13 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 50% | 21% | 42% | 43% | 43% | 17% | 28% |
| 2 | Kentucky | 67.2 | 1.14 | 0.88 | 0.26 | 52% | 19% | 35% | 47% | 47% | 26% | 32% |
| 3 | Arizona | 69.1 | 1.2 | 0.89 | 0.31 | 53% | 21% | 40% | 49% | 49% | 23% | 32% |
| 3 | Gonzaga | 68.2 | 1.18 | 0.99 | 0.19 | 55% | 19% | 38% | 49% | 49% | 18% | 28% |
| 3 | Kansas | 67.1 | 1.17 | 0.91 | 0.26 | 53% | 21% | 35% | 44% | 44% | 20% | 31% |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 66.8 | 1.15 | 0.89 | 0.26 | 53% | 20% | 38% | 47% | 47% | 23% | 30% |
| Final 4 | Illinois | 64.9 | 1.23 | 0.88 | 0.35 | 56% | 17% | 34% | 47% | 47% | 22% | 29% |
| Final 4 | Louisville | 67.8 | 1.21 | 0.9 | 0.31 | 55% | 20% | 37% | 45% | 45% | 23% | 30% |
| Final 4 | North Carolina | 73.7 | 1.26 | 0.88 | 0.38 | 56% | 21% | 39% | 46% | 46% | 23% | 30% |
| Final 4 | Michigan St. | 67.7 | 1.21 | 0.92 | 0.29 | 55% | 20% | 38% | 49% | 49% | 22% | 27% |
2004
| Seed | 2004 | Pos | Oeff | Deff | Margin | EFG | TO | Oreb | Defg | Defg | Dto | Doreb |
| 1 | St. Joseph's | 68 | 1.18 | 0.88 | 0.31 | 56% | 17% | 28% | 44% | 44% | 24% | 35% |
| 1 | Kentucky | 68.3 | 1.16 | 0.88 | 0.28 | 53% | 21% | 36% | 46% | 46% | 23% | 29% |
| 1 | Duke | 69.8 | 1.24 | 0.85 | 0.38 | 53% | 19% | 38% | 45% | 45% | 24% | 35% |
| 1 | Stanford | 66.4 | 1.11 | 0.86 | 0.26 | 53% | 21% | 37% | 44% | 44% | 21% | 27% |
| 2 | Oklahoma St. | 66 | 1.2 | 0.88 | 0.33 | 56% | 20% | 36% | 46% | 46% | 22% | 30% |
| 2 | Gonzaga | 68.2 | 1.19 | 0.92 | 0.27 | 57% | 19% | 37% | 44% | 44% | 18% | 28% |
| 2 | Mississippi St. | 70.5 | 1.15 | 0.89 | 0.26 | 52% | 21% | 40% | 47% | 47% | 23% | 30% |
| 2 | Connecticut | 69.6 | 1.2 | 0.85 | 0.35 | 53% | 19% | 41% | 42% | 42% | 17% | 29% |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | 61.7 | 1.12 | 0.84 | 0.28 | 51% | 19% | 39% | 43% | 43% | 20% | 33% |
| 3 | Georgia Tech | 70.2 | 1.14 | 0.85 | 0.29 | 53% | 21% | 31% | 44% | 44% | 27% | 34% |
| 3 | Texas | 66.4 | 1.17 | 0.9 | 0.27 | 50% | 17% | 42% | 45% | 45% | 20% | 30% |
| 3 | North Carolina St. | 63.7 | 1.22 | 0.92 | 0.3 | 53% | 20% | 31% | 47% | 47% | 22% | 32% |
| Final 4 | Oklahoma St. | 66 | 1.2 | 0.88 | 0.33 | 56% | 20% | 36% | 46% | 46% | 22% | 30% |
| Final 4 | Georgia Tech | 70.2 | 1.14 | 0.85 | 0.29 | 53% | 21% | 31% | 44% | 44% | 27% | 34% |
| Final 4 | Duke | 69.8 | 1.24 | 0.85 | 0.38 | 53% | 19% | 38% | 45% | 45% | 24% | 35% |
| Final 4 | Connecticut | 69.6 | 1.2 | 0.85 | 0.35 | 53% | 19% | 41% | 42% | 42% | 17% | 29% |
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