Mar 18, 2008

Planting the NCAA Seeds

*This is a post I worked up last year and now I've updated with the 2007 numbers. It's just a helpful guide to see what it takes, flat-out numbers-wise to produce a Final Four team and eventual champion. Picking that random 5-12 upset may score you bonus points, but you'll never be in contention unless you've got the champion, finalists and final four nailed down. *

This takes the stats off of kenpom.com and gives us the basic tempo-free breakdowns of the past 4 tournaments' teams. Obviously, as with all stats, this is isn't anywhere near the end-all be-all, just another tool in the shed to use in trying to fill out that pesky bracket better than your 10 year old neighbor kid.

The first two tables are averages for the 4 years, with the data for each year just below those tables. The first one showcases all Final Four teams and their averages. The second just looks at the top 3 seeds, to get some type of idea of what characteristics a pretender, or contender holds in the top 3 seed lines. The goal always is to get the most teams in your bracket to the final four. Hopefully, this gives a little insight as to what to look for in the "better" and "overrated" top 3 seeded teams this year.

Finalists in Bold. Champions in italics.

(Bonus statistical note: The averages are straight averages, not averages off of the raw numbers. So keep that in mind. It may render these averages completely useless. Maybe not.)

Pos: Possessions/40 minutes
Oeff: Offensive Efficiency. Points-per-possession
Deff: Defensive Efficiency.
Margin: Oeff - Deff
Efg: Effective field goal shooting percentage
TO: Turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions)
Oreb: Offensive rebounding rate (offensive rebounds per rebound opportunity)
Defg: Effective FG % allowed
Dto: Turnover rate forced
Doreb: Offensive rebounding % allowed


All Final Four Teams








PosOeffDeffMarginEFGTOOrebDefgDefgDtoDoreb


671.190.870.3255%20%36%46%46%22%30%



Averages for the Top 3 seeds based on their finish (Ex: Final 4 - Averages for all Top 3 seeds that made the final four)







PosOeffDeffMarginEFGTOOrebDefgDefgDtoDoreb
Final 466.91.210.870.3455%20%36%45%45%22%31%
Finalists67.71.20.860.3355%20%36%45%45%22%30%
Champions69.71.230.870.3656%20%38%45%45%20%30%
Didn't make Final 467.91.170.90.2753%19%37%46%46%21%31%









Seed2007PosOeffDeffMarginEFGTOOrebDefgDefgDtoDoreb
1Florida66.81.250.870.3860%21%38%45%45%19%28%
1North Carolina73.11.240.860.3854%18%40%47%47%21%30%
1Kansas701.180.820.3655%20%38%43%43%24%30%
1Ohio St.65.41.240.880.3654%17%35%47%47%20%31%
2Wisconsin64.41.170.860.3152%17%35%46%46%22%29%
2UCLA64.31.170.840.3354%18%33%48%48%23%30%
2Memphis69.11.170.870.352%18%40%44%44%24%32%
2Georgetown59.91.250.890.3657%22%40%44%44%19%34%
3Oregon66.91.20.930.2753%18%35%49%49%22%33%
3Pittsburgh63.41.180.90.2853%18%37%46%46%19%32%
3Washington St.60.71.130.890.2352%16%27%46%46%22%32%
3Texas A&M651.20.870.3456%18%34%43%43%22%30%
Final 4Florida66.81.250.870.3860%21%38%45%45%19%28%
Final 4UCLA64.31.170.840.3354%18%33%48%48%23%30%
Final 4Georgetown59.91.250.890.3657%22%40%44%44%19%34%
Final 4Ohio St.65.41.240.880.3654%17%35%47%47%20%31%






2006

Seed2006PosOeffDeffMarginEFGTOOrebDefgDefgDtoDoreb
1Villanova67.21.160.890.2749%17%36%47%47%23%31%
1Connecticut71.51.190.890.352%20%42%43%43%18%31%
1Duke72.21.180.890.2956%19%29%46%46%22%37%
1Memphis72.51.120.870.2551%21%41%43%43%23%30%
2Texas65.81.180.880.3153%20%41%44%44%21%26%
2Tennessee72.81.170.950.2254%18%30%53%53%24%33%
2UCLA63.41.120.840.2853%22%36%46%46%22%29%
2Georgetown59.41.160.920.2453%19%35%48%48%20%29%
3Iowa66.51.040.830.249%22%31%44%44%21%28%
3Gonzaga68.61.191.010.1852%18%34%49%49%18%31%
3North Carolina72.61.160.90.2654%23%40%46%46%21%29%
3Florida68.61.190.870.3257%21%35%45%45%22%31%
Final 4Florida68.61.190.870.3257%21%35%45%45%22%31%
Final 4George Mason64.31.090.90.1954%20%30%44%44%20%30%
Final 4UCLA63.41.120.840.2853%22%36%46%46%22%29%
Final 4Louisiana St.69.41.090.850.2450%22%38%46%46%21%29%


2005


Seed2005PosOeffDeffMarginEFGTOOrebDefgDefgDtoDoreb
1Illinois64.91.230.880.3556%17%34%47%47%22%29%
1Washington72.91.210.950.2654%19%40%51%51%24%34%
1North Carolina73.71.260.880.3856%21%39%46%46%23%30%
1Duke68.81.160.860.352%19%37%42%42%22%35%
2Oklahoma St.67.21.230.940.2956%20%35%50%50%22%29%
2Wake Forest701.250.960.2956%20%40%50%50%20%30%
2Connecticut71.71.130.880.2550%21%42%43%43%17%28%
2Kentucky67.21.140.880.2652%19%35%47%47%26%32%
3Arizona69.11.20.890.3153%21%40%49%49%23%32%
3Gonzaga68.21.180.990.1955%19%38%49%49%18%28%
3Kansas67.11.170.910.2653%21%35%44%44%20%31%
3Oklahoma66.81.150.890.2653%20%38%47%47%23%30%
Final 4Illinois64.91.230.880.3556%17%34%47%47%22%29%
Final 4Louisville67.81.210.90.3155%20%37%45%45%23%30%
Final 4North Carolina73.71.260.880.3856%21%39%46%46%23%30%
Final 4Michigan St.67.71.210.920.2955%20%38%49%49%22%27%


2004


Seed2004PosOeffDeffMarginEFGTOOrebDefgDefgDtoDoreb
1St. Joseph's681.180.880.3156%17%28%44%44%24%35%
1Kentucky68.31.160.880.2853%21%36%46%46%23%29%
1Duke69.81.240.850.3853%19%38%45%45%24%35%
1Stanford66.41.110.860.2653%21%37%44%44%21%27%
2Oklahoma St.661.20.880.3356%20%36%46%46%22%30%
2Gonzaga68.21.190.920.2757%19%37%44%44%18%28%
2Mississippi St.70.51.150.890.2652%21%40%47%47%23%30%
2Connecticut69.61.20.850.3553%19%41%42%42%17%29%
3Pittsburgh61.71.120.840.2851%19%39%43%43%20%33%
3Georgia Tech70.21.140.850.2953%21%31%44%44%27%34%
3Texas66.41.170.90.2750%17%42%45%45%20%30%
3North Carolina St.63.71.220.920.353%20%31%47%47%22%32%
Final 4Oklahoma St.661.20.880.3356%20%36%46%46%22%30%
Final 4Georgia Tech70.21.140.850.2953%21%31%44%44%27%34%
Final 4Duke69.81.240.850.3853%19%38%45%45%24%35%
Final 4Connecticut69.61.20.850.3553%19%41%42%42%17%29%

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