Tale of an Upset

Well, we took care of solidifying your Final Four and your Champion with Tempo-Free validity. Now let's try and squeak in some of those pesky early round upsets. Take a look below at all of the 1st and 2nd round upsets involving a team at least 4 seeds below beating the higher seed. You can see, more or less, the "Davids" hold a fairly solid efficiency margin and shoot well enough and they hang onto the ball a good amount of the time. The "Goliaths" aren't anywhere near as efficient as our averages for Final Four teams. Overall, I can't say that the data can really "open up any doors", but it's just interesting to see the stats associated with a "giant-killer" and with a pretender.


Averages for 2004, 2005 and 2006

	2004-2006	Pos	Oeff	Deff	Margin	EFG	TO	Oreb	Defg	Defg	Dto	Doreb
	Underdog	67.2	1.1	0.93	0.17	51%	20%	33%	47%	47%	22%	31%
	Favorite	68.4	1.14	0.92	0.22	52%	20%	36%	47%	47%	21%	30%

2006

Seed	2006	Pos	Oeff	Deff	Margin	EFG	TO	Oreb	Defg	Defg	Dto	Doreb
12	Texas A&M	65.2	1.07	0.87	0.2	51%	20%	30%	47%	47%	27%	32%
5	Syracuse	70	1.09	0.93	0.16	50%	21%	37%	46%	46%	22%	34%
.
14	Northwestern St.	69.7	1.04	0.99	0.05	52%	22%	37%	48%	48%	24%	35%
3	Iowa	66.5	1.04	0.83	0.2	48%	22%	31%	44%	44%	21%	28%
.
13	Bradley	71.3	1.07	0.89	0.18	49%	21%	34%	45%	45%	23%	30%
4	Kansas	69.9	1.11	0.84	0.28	52%	22%	37%	43%	43%	24%	31%
.
13	Bradley	71.3	1.07	0.89	0.18	49%	21%	34%	45%	45%	23%	30%
5	Pittsburgh	66.3	1.13	0.89	0.25	51%	20%	38%	46%	46%	19%	26%
.
12	Montana	68.2	1.09	1.01	0.08	55%	19%	32%	50%	50%	20%	31%
5	Nevada	67.8	1.08	0.92	0.16	50%	19%	35%	45%	45%	20%	30%
.
11	Wisconsin Milwaukee	70.3	1.06	0.94	0.12	49%	20%	37%	49%	49%	22%	28%
6	Oklahoma	64.9	1.12	0.96	0.16	51%	22%	43%	50%	50%	21%	27%
.
7	Georgetown	59.4	1.16	0.92	0.24	53%	19%	35%	48%	48%	20%	29%
2	Ohio St.	67.5	1.11	0.9	0.22	54%	18%	29%	47%	47%	20%	30%
.
11	George Mason	64.3	1.09	0.9	0.19	54%	20%	30%	44%	44%	20%	30%
6	Michigan St.	66.8	1.14	0.96	0.18	53%	21%	34%	50%	50%	19%	29%
.
11	George Mason	64.3	1.09	0.9	0.19	54%	20%	30%	44%	44%	20%	30%
3	North Carolina	72.6	1.16	0.9	0.26	54%	23%	40%	46%	46%	20%	29%
.
10	Wichita St.	64.9	1.11	0.94	0.17	50%	20%	34%	47%	47%	19%	27%
2	Tennessee	72.8	1.17	0.95	0.22	54%	18%	30%	53%	53%	24%	33%

2005

Seed	2005	Pos	Oeff	Deff	Margin	EFG	TO	Oreb	Defg	Defg	Dto	Doreb
12	Wisconsin Milwaukee	70.3	1.11	0.94	0.17	51%	20%	36%	47%	47%	24%	33%
5	Alabama	64.2	1.19	0.95	0.25	56%	19%	34%	47%	47%	17%	28%
.
12	Wisconsin Milwaukee	70.3	1.11	0.94	0.17	51%	20%	36%	47%	47%	24%	33%
4	Boston College	65.8	1.15	0.93	0.21	49%	20%	40%	47%	47%	21%	33%
.
11	UAB	71.8	1.08	0.94	0.14	51%	18%	30%	50%	50%	27%	37%
6	LSU	67.5	1.14	0.97	0.17	52%	19%	34%	51%	51%	18%	27%
.
7	West Virginia	64.3	1.16	0.97	0.19	53%	18%	28%	51%	51%	23%	34%
2	Wake Forest	70	1.25	0.96	0.29	56%	20%	40%	50%	50%	20%	30%
.
14	Bucknell	64.1	1.01	0.93	0.08	51%	24%	30%	45%	45%	24%	31%
3	Kansas	67.1	1.17	0.91	0.26	53%	21%	35%	44%	44%	20%	31%
.
10	North Carolina St.	64	1.16	0.93	0.23	53%	19%	31%	49%	49%	23%	35%
2	Connecticut	71.7	1.13	0.88	0.25	50%	21%	42%	43%	43%	17%	28%
.
13	Vermont	65.5	1.11	0.97	0.14	51%	18%	34%	47%	47%	19%	26%
4	Syracuse	66.9	1.15	0.95	0.21	52%	20%	40%	45%	45%	21%	35%

2004

Seed	2004	Pos	Oeff	Deff	Margin	EFG	TO	Oreb	Defg	Defg	Dto	Doreb
12	Manhattan	67	1.09	0.94	0.15	49%	18%	33%	46%	46%	24%	32%
5	Florida	67.5	1.18	0.95	0.23	56%	21%	29%	48%	48%	19%	31%
.
9	UAB	72.1	1.09	0.91	0.18	51%	19%	32%	48%	48%	27%	36%
1	Washington	75.2	1.13	0.97	0.16	52%	19%	32%	52%	52%	22%	34%
.
12	Pacific	65.6	1.08	0.96	0.11	53%	21%	29%	46%	46%	19%	32%
5	Providence	67.2	1.13	0.91	0.22	52%	22%	36%	48%	48%	22%	35%
.
10	Nevada	70.4	1.12	0.88	0.24	49%	18%	36%	46%	46%	20%	28%
2	Gonzaga	68.2	1.19	0.92	0.27	57%	19%	37%	44%	44%	18%	28%
.
7	Xavier	65.6	1.16	0.9	0.26	51%	19%	33%	47%	47%	21%	30%
2	Mississippi St.	70.5	1.19	0.92	0.27	52%	21%	40%	47%	47%	23%	30%
.
8	Alabama	66	1.16	0.94	0.22	51%	19%	32%	48%	48%	20%	31%
1	Stanford	66.4	1.11	0.86	0.26	53%	21%	37%	44%	44%	21%	27%