Mar 14, 2007

Tale of an Upset

Well, we took care of solidifying your Final Four and your Champion with Tempo-Free validity. Now let's try and squeak in some of those pesky early round upsets. Take a look below at all of the 1st and 2nd round upsets involving a team at least 4 seeds below beating the higher seed. You can see, more or less, the "Davids" hold a fairly solid efficiency margin and shoot well enough and they hang onto the ball a good amount of the time. The "Goliaths" aren't anywhere near as efficient as our averages for Final Four teams. Overall, I can't say that the data can really "open up any doors", but it's just interesting to see the stats associated with a "giant-killer" and with a pretender.


Averages for 2004, 2005 and 2006



2004-2006PosOeffDeffMarginEFGTOOrebDefgDefgDtoDoreb
Underdog67.21.10.930.1751%20%33%47%47%22%31%
Favorite68.41.140.920.2252%20%36%47%47%21%30%



2006


Seed2006PosOeffDeffMarginEFGTOOrebDefgDefgDtoDoreb
12Texas A&M65.21.070.870.251%20%30%47%47%27%32%
5Syracuse701.090.930.1650%21%37%46%46%22%34%
.
14Northwestern St.69.71.040.990.0552%22%37%48%48%24%35%
3Iowa66.51.040.830.248%22%31%44%44%21%28%
.
13Bradley71.31.070.890.1849%21%34%45%45%23%30%
4Kansas69.91.110.840.2852%22%37%43%43%24%31%
.
13Bradley71.31.070.890.1849%21%34%45%45%23%30%
5Pittsburgh66.31.130.890.2551%20%38%46%46%19%26%
.
12Montana68.21.091.010.0855%19%32%50%50%20%31%
5Nevada67.81.080.920.1650%19%35%45%45%20%30%
.
11Wisconsin Milwaukee70.31.060.940.1249%20%37%49%49%22%28%
6Oklahoma64.91.120.960.1651%22%43%50%50%21%27%
.
7Georgetown59.41.160.920.2453%19%35%48%48%20%29%
2Ohio St.67.51.110.90.2254%18%29%47%47%20%30%
.
11George Mason64.31.090.90.1954%20%30%44%44%20%30%
6Michigan St.66.81.140.960.1853%21%34%50%50%19%29%
.
11George Mason64.31.090.90.1954%20%30%44%44%20%30%
3North Carolina72.61.160.90.2654%23%40%46%46%20%29%
.
10Wichita St.64.91.110.940.1750%20%34%47%47%19%27%
2Tennessee72.81.170.950.2254%18%30%53%53%24%33%



2005


Seed2005PosOeffDeffMarginEFGTOOrebDefgDefgDtoDoreb
12Wisconsin Milwaukee70.31.110.940.1751%20%36%47%47%24%33%
5Alabama64.21.190.950.2556%19%34%47%47%17%28%
.
12Wisconsin Milwaukee70.31.110.940.1751%20%36%47%47%24%33%
4Boston College65.81.150.930.2149%20%40%47%47%21%33%
.
11UAB71.81.080.940.1451%18%30%50%50%27%37%
6LSU67.51.140.970.1752%19%34%51%51%18%27%
.
7West Virginia64.31.160.970.1953%18%28%51%51%23%34%
2Wake Forest701.250.960.2956%20%40%50%50%20%30%
.
14Bucknell64.11.010.930.0851%24%30%45%45%24%31%
3Kansas67.11.170.910.2653%21%35%44%44%20%31%
.
10North Carolina St.641.160.930.2353%19%31%49%49%23%35%
2Connecticut71.71.130.880.2550%21%42%43%43%17%28%
.
13Vermont65.51.110.970.1451%18%34%47%47%19%26%
4Syracuse66.91.150.950.2152%20%40%45%45%21%35%




2004


Seed2004PosOeffDeffMarginEFGTOOrebDefgDefgDtoDoreb
12Manhattan671.090.940.1549%18%33%46%46%24%32%
5Florida67.51.180.950.2356%21%29%48%48%19%31%
.
9UAB72.11.090.910.1851%19%32%48%48%27%36%
1Washington75.21.130.970.1652%19%32%52%52%22%34%
.
12Pacific65.61.080.960.1153%21%29%46%46%19%32%
5Providence67.21.130.910.2252%22%36%48%48%22%35%
.
10Nevada70.41.120.880.2449%18%36%46%46%20%28%
2Gonzaga68.21.190.920.2757%19%37%44%44%18%28%
.
7Xavier65.61.160.90.2651%19%33%47%47%21%30%
2Mississippi St.70.51.190.920.2752%21%40%47%47%23%30%
.
8Alabama661.160.940.2251%19%32%48%48%20%31%
1Stanford66.41.110.860.2653%21%37%44%44%21%27%

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