That Rain, oh that Rain

Still rough on those over/under predictions. I'll blame it on interest rates, the weather and the election year. Oh, I'm sorry, I mistook myself for the Real Estate industry.

But in games of note last night:

UNC had no problem pushing those pesky once-unbeaten Clemson Tigers further into the loss column, winning 77 to 55 on the road in a Tar Heel-defined 83 possession game. While they weren't particularly efficient (only .93 points a possession with a 27% turnover rate) they made up for it with a strong "defensive" effort, keeping the Tigers at .67 ppp on a dreadful 36.8% efg. To compare the use of possessions, UNC took 8 less shots but made 8 more field goals. We'll call that a 16 point swing!! Brandon Wright lead the charge with 17 points on only 10 shots for a 1.49 ppws to go along with his colossal 4 blocks in only 29 minutes of play.


The 'Cats of Northwestern didn't help the over on this one, as they could only muster 41 points in a 62 possession game against the Buckeyes' 73 points (1.19 ppp). It should be noted that NU's most proficient scorer, Kevin Coble was again out last night with an ankle (thank you Al Michaels!!!).
On the bright side, NU actually improved on the defensive glass, only allowing 35% of offensive rebounding chances to succeed compared to their season average of 40%.



Florida St. put a stop to Virginia Tech's hotness by holding serve at home despite getting out shot (61% efg vs. 52%) in the 69 possession game. They did limit Vtech's second chances by grabbing 82% of defensive rebounding opportunities and they held an edge in getting to the free throw line.


Syracuse did everything wrong except shoot extremely well (61.2% efg) in holding on to the one point win at home against a sub-par Bearcats squad. They coughed it up 21 times in the 73 possession game and gave up more chances on the offensive glass than they got (37% vs. 26%). But, getting to the line at the end gave them 10 extra attempts and they finished with a slight edge in offensive efficiency (1.05 vs. 1.04 ppp).


Coming this afternoon, a preview look at the Pac10 games tonight!
Morphing into a more Pac10-focused site as the days go on....

Return of the Lines

Two lines that are tempting:

Northwestern at Ohio St. 119
Over

George Washington at Richmond 127
Over

Let's wait and see....

Sorry for a lack of my usual posts. Been busy cooking up a cauldron of tempo free stats for the Pac10.

Pac 10 Tempo Free Stats

Through games of 1/21/07.

****Note: For whatever strange reason, the Pac-10 is always very slow to update their stats. They still only show through the 23rd. There's probably some east-coast bias conspiracy going on here....isn't that always the case??


Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes)

1. Arizona	70.2
2. Washington	65.8
3. USC	65.2
4. Oregon State	65
5. UCLA	64.8
6. California	64.5
7. Oregon	64.3
8. Stanford	63.9
9. Washington State	61.1
10. Arizona State	57.5

Offensive Efficiency (points per possession)

1. Oregon	1.16
2. Arizona	1.15
3. USC	1.1
4. California	1.1
5. Washington State	1.08
6. UCLA	1.07
7. Stanford	1.06
8. Washington	1.02
9. Oregon State	0.98
10. Arizona State	0.95

Effective FG %

1. USC	56.9%
2. Arizona	54.6%
3. UCLA	52.7%
4. Oregon	52.5%
5. Washington State	52.5%
6. California	52.4%
7. Washington	50.5%
8. Stanford	50.4%
9. Oregon State	48.1%
10. Arizona State	46.9%

2-pt Shooting %

1. Arizona	55.5%
2. USC	52.9%
3. Washington State	52.2%
4. Oregon State	51.4%
5. California	50.7%
6. Stanford	50.6%
7. UCLA	50.4%
8. Arizona State	49.4%
9. Oregon	47.4%
10. Washington	45.4%

3-pt Shooting %

1. USC	44%
2. Washington	42.9%
3. Oregon	40.1%
4. UCLA	37.4%
5. California	36.2%
6. Washington State	35.3%
7. Arizona	35.1%
8. Stanford	33.3%
9. Arizona State	28.2%
10. Oregon State	27.9%

Turnover %

1. Washington State	12.6%
2. Oregon	15.1%
3. California	17.3%
4. USC	17.6%
5. Arizona	18.8%
6. Oregon State	20.2%
7. UCLA	20.5%
8. Washington	21.2%
9. Stanford	21.3%
10. Arizona State	23.3%

Offensive Rebounding %

1. Stanford	36.1%
2. Arizona State	33.1%
3. UCLA	33.1%
4. Washington	32.7%
5. Arizona	31%
6. Oregon State	30.2%
7. Oregon	29.7%
8. California	26.8%
9. USC	21.5%
10. Washington State	20.9%

Efficiency Margin

1. Washington State	0.15
2. USC	0.14
3. UCLA	0.12
4. Oregon	0.06
5. Arizona	0.05
6. Stanford	0
7. California	-0.03
8. Washington	-0.13
9. Arizona State	-0.17
10. Oregon State	-0.18

Defensive Numbers



Defensive Efficiency (points per possession allowed)

1. Washington State	0.93
2. UCLA	0.95
3. USC	0.96
4. Stanford	1.06
5. Arizona	1.1
6. Oregon	1.11
7. Arizona State	1.12
8. California	1.13
9. Oregon State	1.15
10. Washington	1.16

Effective FG % Allowed

1. Washington State	45%
2. USC	45.9%
3. Stanford	47.4%
4. UCLA	48.7%
5. Arizona State	52.4%
6. Oregon	53.6%
7. Arizona	54.5%
8. California	56%
9. Washington	56.5%
10. Oregon State	56.6%

2-pt Shooting % Allowed

1. USC	41.3%
2. Washington State	43.6%
3. Stanford	45.7%
4. UCLA	48.2%
5. Arizona State	49.8%
6. Arizona	53.7%
7. California	55.6%
8. Oregon	56.1%
9. Oregon State	56.1%
10. Washington	56.5%

3-pt Shooting % Allowed

1. Washington State	31.8%
2. Oregon	32.6%
3. UCLA	33.3%
4. Stanford	34.9%
5. USC	35.4%
6. Arizona	37.4%
7. Arizona State	37.6%
8. Washington	37.6%
9. California	38%
10. Oregon State	38.3%

Turnover % Forced

1. Oregon State	21.5%
2. UCLA	20.9%
3. Oregon	20.4%
4. Washington State	20.1%
5. Arizona State	19.5%
6. USC	19.3%
7. California	17.8%
8. Washington	17.7%
9. Arizona	16.8%
10. Stanford	14.9%

Defensive Rebounding %

1. UCLA	79.9%
2. California	77.6%
3. Washington	77.1%
4. Arizona State	74.3%
5. USC	74.1%
6. Washington State	73.9%
7. Stanford	72.8%
8. Arizona	72.6%
9. Oregon State	68.9%
10. Oregon	68.3%

2006 Numbers Now Up

While we're at it, let's add 2006 numbers so that we can compare some vast (see Wazzu and Oregon) improvements or declines after the first two weekends of play.

2006 Pac 10 Tempo Free Offensive Stats

Pace (Possessions/40 minutes)

1. Arizona	70
2. Washington	69
3. USC	68
4. Oregon State	66
5. Arizona State	65
6. Stanford	65
7. UCLA	64
8. Oregon	62
9. California	62
10. Washington State	61

Offensive Efficiency (Points per possession)

1. Washington	1.1
2. Oregon	1.06
3. UCLA	1.06
4. Arizona	1.03
5. California	1.02
6. Stanford	1.01
7. USC	0.99
8. Oregon State	0.97
9. Arizona State	0.97
10. Washington State	0.9

Effective FG %

1. UCLA	53%
2. Washington	51.2%
3. Oregon	51.1%
4. Oregon State	49.6%
5. Arizona	48.9%
6. USC	48.4%
7. California	48.1%
8. Arizona State	47.7%
9. Stanford	47.2%
10. Washington State	45%

2-pt Shooting %

1. UCLA	54.1%
2. Oregon	52.7%
3. Arizona	48.8%
4. Washington	48.5%
5. Oregon State	47.2%
6. California	45.5%
7. USC	45.2%
8. Arizona State	45.1%
9. Stanford	44.8%
10. Washington State	44.5%

3-pt Shooting %

1. Washington	38%
2. Oregon State	36.9%
3. California	36.7%
4. Arizona State	36.1%
5. Stanford	35.9%
6. USC	35.9%
7. UCLA	34.2%
8. Arizona	33%
9. Oregon	32.3%
10. Washington State	30.9%

Turnover %

1. California	18.7%
2. USC	19%
3. Arizona	19.2%
4. Oregon	19.6%
5. Washington	20.2%
6. Washington State	21.2%
7. Stanford	21.6%
8. Arizona State	21.9%
9. UCLA	22.6%
10. Oregon State	23.7%

Offensive Rebounding %

1. Washington	38.9%
2. Arizona	33%
3. Oregon	32.8%
4. UCLA	32.3%
5. Stanford	30.8%
6. Arizona State	30.3%
7. Oregon State	27.7%
8. California	27.1%
9. Washington State	25.8%
10. USC	25%

Defense Numbers

Defensive Efficiency (points per possession)

1. UCLA	0.93
2. Washington State	0.97
3. California	0.97
4. Arizona	0.99
5. Washington	0.99
6. Stanford	1.01
7. USC	1.03
8. Oregon	1.05
9. Oregon State	1.07
10. Arizona State	1.09

Efficieny margin

1. UCLA	0.13
2. Washington	0.11
3. California	0.05
4. Arizona	0.04
5. Oregon	0.01
6. Stanford	0
7. USC	-0.05
8. Washington State	-0.07
9. Oregon State	-0.1
10. Arizona State	-0.12

Defensive Effective FG %

1. Washington State	45.5%
2. UCLA	46.8%
3. California	47.3%
4. Stanford	47.5%
5. Oregon State	48.4%
6. Washington	49.5%
7. Arizona State	50.4%
8. Oregon	50.5%
9. Arizona	51.8%
10. USC	52.7%

Opponent 2-pt Shooting %

1. Washington State	45.1%
2. Stanford	46.8%
3. Oregon State	48%
4. UCLA	45.5%
5. Washington	48.7%
6. California	44.8%
7. Arizona	50.4%
8. Oregon	48.2%
9. Arizona State	47.4%
10. USC	50.5%

Opponent 3-pt Shooting %

1. Washington State	31%
2. Stanford	32.8%
3. Oregon State	32.9%
4. UCLA	33.8%
5. Washington	34.2%
6. California	35%
7. Arizona	36.5%
8. Oregon	38.1%
9. Arizona State	38.1%
10. USC	38.2%

Forced Turnover %

1. Arizona	25.6%
2. Washington	22.5%
3. USC	22.4%
4. UCLA	22.3%
5. California	20.1%
6. Washington State	20%
7. Arizona State	19.5%
8. Stanford	18.9%
9. Oregon	17.8%
10. Oregon State	17.6%

Defensive Rebounding %

1. USC	75%
2. Washington State	74.2%
3. California	72.9%
4. Oregon State	72.3%
5. Arizona State	69.7%
6. Stanford	69.2%
7. UCLA	67.7%
8. Oregon	67.2%
9. Arizona	67%
10. Washington	61.1%

Pac10 Thursday

Pac10 Thursday last night (why doesn't ESPN pick this up? ACC Wednesday. Big Ten Tuesday. Big12 - Pac10 challenge will help)

Washington St. 73 Cal 56
Wazzu - Cal game got the over thanks to strong shooting (62% efg) from Wazzu and marginally-low turnovers on both sides (11 for Wash St. vs. 9 for Cal in a 63 possession game. Meanwhile, Tony Bennett's crew chalked up another impressive road win in the Pac-10 to match their victory down in Southern Cal. Please raise your hand if you predicted Wazzu would be 4-1 in the Pac10 while the Huskies of Washington would be sitting at 1-4. Anybody?

Washington 77 Stanford 78
On that note, another tough loss, well, a giveaway loss to Stanford for the Huskies in Palo Alto. Stanford's D wasn't all that impressive, as they gavie up 1.05 points a possession while allowing 50% efg and giving back 44% of Washington's misses in offensive rebounds, but they shot well (60% efg) and took advantage of some careless play (hello Appleby, this is a foul) on the part of the visiting team to get a big hold at home.

Oregon 60 Arizona St. 55
Ducks were somewhat efficient (1.09 ppp) while once again, being helped by poor 3pt shooting from the opponent (20% for the Sun Devils). Aaron Brooks shook off the demons from the USC loss (he missed a free throw with 3 attempts at the end to tie it) by sealing the win last night at the line.

Overall, the Pac10 kept its reputation as a "less-hostile" home venue league with as half the road teams won last night and Stanford barely held on.

Betting the Over Bonus CAA game
Hofstra 55 Drexel 53
Medium paced game (68 possessions) played awfully inefficient. Only .8 ppp for Hofstra vs. .775 ppp for Drexel on 35.6% vs. 36.3% shooting from the two. They also weren't grabbing many offensive board opportunities as they only totalled 17 combined o-rebounds on 71 total misses. Matching the over like expected??? Not even close!!!

1 and 1 on the night

Two tonight....

Just two "overs" that pop out as there's very few matchups with higher-than-rpi-100 teams.

Wazzu vs. Cal 122
Over

Hofstra vs. Drexel 128
Over

Enjoy the weather

We'll Try Again

2-3 on the over/under picks. Not very good indeed, but we'll see how the season averages out. Missed the NU/MSU game by 2. And Bradley/Southern Ill crawled to an even slower pace than the Salukis usually wanted (55 possessions) and there were 28 turnovers in that game.
We'll try again this afternoon.

Some brief caps:

Virginia 69 UNC 79
UNC grabbed 18 offensive boards, for a highly respected 45% offensive rebounding percentage in its 10 point win against Virgina. All of those boards helped the 'Heels overcome a 10 percent deficit in the effective shooting category. Virginia's 17 turnovers also didn't help in the 76 possession game.

Miami 63 Maryland 58
UGLY GAME OF THE NIGHT AWARD. 33.6% eFG shooting for the winners. 27.6% shooting for the losers. They both coughed up around 20% of their possessions on turnovers and couldn't even get close to averaging a point a possession. Maryland did not help their chances with this turd of a game.

Marquette 73 Uconn 69
Big road win for Marquette as Ousmane Barro totalled 17 points while hitting 1.32 points-per-weighted-shot and hauled in 22% of available rebounds while he was on the floor. On the season, Barro is averaging 60% shooting but is only taking 14% of the team's shots. On the other hand, Jerel Mcneal is taking close to 30% of the team's shots, but is only shooting 44% efg on the season. Getting some better distribution will help the Golden Eagles secure some more wins like this one.

Duke 63 Georgia Tech 74
The Stinging Insects were far worse than the usual turnover-prone Blue Devils (28 vs. 17 in a 76 possession game) but were saved by the fact that they shot the lights out (65% eFG on 58% 3pt) and that Duke couldn't hit more than 4 of their 20 attempts from beyond the arc.

Purdue 58 Indiana 85
Strong state-win for the Hoosiers with a highly efficient display of offense: 66.7% efg and 85 points in a 67 possession game for a 1.26 points-per-possession average. Joey Shaw was the highlight as he only played 18 minutes, but popped in 19 points on 1.93 ppws numbers!! With only 45% of the teams minutes played, essentially, while he was on the floor, every other point that Indiana scored was a result of Shaw. Impressed are we here at TFS.


Plenty of others, but back we go to over/under predictions. Soon to come

More over/under betting....

Some last minute over/under action.
It's hump day, might as well, right?

Games that are popping out slightly for the over:

Northwestern at Michigan St. 113 -
While it will be a game in the low 60's in possessions, expect at least 1 point a possession average between the two.

Iowa at Illinois 126
Should be close, probably around low 130's

Southern Illinois at Bradley 136
Looking like the mid 140's depending on who sets the pace. The Salukis slow 62 pos/game or Bradley's 72 pos/game pace.

Purdue at Indiana 128
We'll call this intra-state matchup at 69-63 in favor of the home team.

Pitt at Depaul 135
Tight one with Depaul taking 1.5 at home, but we'll take the points with Depaul winning 73-69


Of course, yet again, I could be completely wrong. Still tinkering.

Seeing Red....

Good Super Tuesday of basketball, as expected.

Ohio St. 69 Wisconsin 72

In the battle of the Bucks, Wisconsin used a tremendous interior defense to stifle any attempts at points in the paint, until the very end. Marcus Landry showed up in the stat sheet with 4 blocks in only 21 minutes!! With Ohio St. shooting 34 two-point shots, that's an outrageous 22% of all attempted two-point shots that he blocked while he was on the floor. Just as impressive was Wisconsin blocking 21% of all two point shots during the game. 8% is great, 22% is insane. Anyone watching the game could see the swarms of white that would descend the minute the ball got inside the arc. Taylor stepped up during Tucker's "poor" shooting to hit 1.60 points-per-weighted shot for 25 total points. Ohio St.'s improvement over the course of the game in their numerous 3-point attempts (finishing 46% while hoisting 43% of their shots as threes) kept the game within reach.
Jason Chappell played his role perfectly while not posting anything great on the stat sheet, he frustrated Oden all night and cause him to draw an early 2nd foul in the first half. Ohio St. continues its treacherous schedule (already playing at the top 3 teams in the nation) while hosting an extremely strong Tennessee team.


Clemson 87 NC St. 76

Clemson continued its reign as the last unbeaten by getting a quality, mistake-free win at NC St. The Tigers only turned the ball over 8 times in a 68 possession game while forcing 17 from the Wolfpack, for a 25% TO percentage. They also shot well from three (52%) while posting 63.5% eFG and a solid 1.28 points-per-possession. NC St. was almost as hot with 1.11 ppp on 63% eFG, but turning over the ball on a quarter of the possessions just doesn't help the cause.

Evansville 54 Mizzou St. 106

Missouri St., with help from Northern Iowa's loss to Illinois St. brought itself into a tie for first in the MVC with a complete offensive and defensive shellacking of Evansville. The Bears offense scored 1.55 points a possession!!! Yes, you heard it right. 57% 3pt shooting with 73% eFG numbers coupled with 25 assists on 63 shots. Sharing means points in this game. ***TEMPO-FREE ALERT*** The Bears "only" had 9 offensive rebound to the Aces 10 o-boards. Were they beat on the offensive glass???? You must unlearn what you have learned master Luke. Because of the Bears tremendous shooting, there just weren't that many opportunities, or "at-bats" for them to grab an offensive board. But the few misses that they did have (23), they secured 39% of those; an extremely strong percentage of second chances. On the other end, Evansville's "better" 10 rebounds came on 38 misses, for only a 23% offensive rebounding "batting average". Onward goes the Tempo-free revolution!!!!!! No wonder Evansville only could manage .79 points a possession.


Other lights:

22. Gators continue their stronghold in the Gainesville with almost identical statistical numbers of Arkansas, but slightly more 3 pointers. Ahh, as Dickie V would say "the power of the three babayyyy!!!"
7345. Air Force outscores New Mexico 41-18 in the second half to overcome a 15 point deficit at the half.
433. Notre Dame wins a close one. Joining the Ducks in trying to reverse last season's trend

Coming soon...
Fanatical looks back at who's "improved" from last season. How wrong were we a month ago?

Madness in Madtown....

Much has been written, people are pumped, so we will just enjoy the show tonight.

The Second Season arrives....sorry I'm late

It's been a crazy past couple of weeks. Now that my feet are back in place and I'm not going anywhere for a while, let TFS proceed!
Conference season is now in full swing and we've already seen some riveting matchups and statistical tempo-free abnormalities.
Some highlights of the past weekend or so in complete universe-chaotic subnormal random order:

1. Ducks a quakin' -
Just 2 days ago, the Ducks of Oregon gave up a colossal 47% of UCLA's missed shots back to the Bruins for second chances, yet still mostly held a 8-9 point lead throughout until narrowly escaping with a dramatic shot and defensive hold to upset the number one team in the nation. Being in attendance, I can fully back Kenpom's praise of the Duck's Mary Leunen. A complete presence on the floor on the defensive end, with tremendous position holding and rebounding ability coupled with great hands and smart eyes on the offensive end. Like he said, his stats will never rise to the top (18 points, 7 boards with 1.13 ppws and 15% rebounding % on both ends), but his effort is a joy to watch in person.

2. Holding serve -
Big MVC win down in Cedar Falls, Iowa for Northern Iowa over the Salukis of Southern Illinois. The movers and shakers of the MVC have to hold serve on their home court this year (Northern Iowa spoiled Wichita St's hopes of that on 12/30), and the Panthers somehow notched a win by nailing their numerous free throw attempts (22 of 29 vs. 9 of 13 for S. Ill) and by keeping their turnovers low (16%) as they've done all season.

3. Hoggin the SEC-
After the two Texas school losses, the Arkansas is back on track after winning 4 straight before their big game in Gainesville on Tuesday. The Hogs held 'Bama to .82 points a possession on 38.7% eFG and forcing a 20% turnover rate. Meanwhile on the offensive end, they shot well (56.6%) and kept their turnovers extremely low (only 7 in a 74 possession game). A good primer for the "big one" (see variations on words starting with Buck) tomorrow night, check out Hogs-Gators for a high-flying SEC matchup at 7 eastern on the Uno.

4. UCanned
Trying to make sense of the linkage here:
Uconn was beaten by LSU by more than double digits, who was beaten by as much against Washington, who lost by roughly the same margin to Gonzaga, who lost by that margin to a slew of teams, let's say Virginia, who lost by that to Utah, who lost by that to Northwestern, who lost by that to Penn St who lost by that to Seton Hall, who lost by double digits to Providence, who lost by that to Brown who of course lost by 10 to Albany, who brings it all back together, because they lost to U Conn by 31.
What does this mean? Either the universe is going to implode upon itself in the next 5 minutes or we've got yet another unpredictable college season (duh, isn't that every season). But look at what happens when the Huskies finally venture out from their friendly confines of the home court.
After averaging 1.1 points a possession and 51.5% eFG this season, Uconn managed .67 ppp, on dreadful 33% eFG with 18% 3pt shooting against Big Baby and the Tigers.
A long Big East road for them indeed.

5. Hokies enact revenge-
Last year's heartbreaker (depending on what side you were on) was made right for the Hokies in their ugly (on Duke's end) but successful upset bid in Cameron. V Tech limited their turnovers, while Duke continued to spark their own demise with 22 turnovers in a 70 possession game, for a high-flying 31% to rate. Puke! Paulus continued his butter fingers by coughing up 6 of those with only 18 minutes of playing time. Duke shot well (54% efg) but obviously, the turnovers were in far too great of numbers to overcome.

Others of note (since I'm still catching up. Still no order)

812. Wazzu a force in Eastern Washington against the Sun State schools.
23. Texas and Durant were cruising in their 80 possession game blowout in Colorado
54. Air Force continues....
743. The Orangemen laid waste to Marquette in Milwaukee in a turnover-infested bloodbath (26% for the winners, 30% for the losers) in a high-paced 77 possession game. 43 turnovers in all.
434. Indy's solid home win to stay out of the Big Ten early-weekend-cellar
253. Stanford's crazy last-second win against Virginia. 14 lead-changes with 53 total free throws. Produces a true who's who of who's beaten who.

Plenty more, but let's start

almost there...

Still out, but in the meantime, peruse this required reading.
Back on tap Monday, January 8th.

trippin...

Not available to post at this time.
Back next week. Sorry for the wait.

Pac-10 Putting Some Bigger Wins on the Board

Teams from the Pac-10 had a couple of "statement" wins last night no doubt.
Arizona kept Memphis in check at home with a balanced attack inside the arc. Memphis was in foul trouble early on, and had to rely on the double-digit scoring efforts of its bench players just to keep it close.

**Update. Pac 10 Tempo Free Stats are now up here

The Huskies made the largest noise last night, jumping out ahead of LSU early and never looking back. In what "looked" like a fast game, with Washington running and gunning all game showed up as moderate on paper at 71 possessions. This is where you have to look a little deeper at the numbers to get a better feel of the game if you hadn't watched it. Both teams were tremendous on the offensive glass, or horrendous on the defensive glass, depending on how you look at it. The Huskies pulled in 50% of their own misses while LSU gathered an almost-equally strong 39%. So, while shots were being hoisted in the 70 shot range, a high number that usually translates into a high 70 or even 80 possession game, the constant stream of offensive boards limited the amount of possessions that showed up on paper.
Spencer Hawes vs. Big Baby stats with 30 minutes of playing time for Hawes vs. 37 for Davis:

.	Davis	Hawes
Points	8	20
Orebs	5	4
Drebs	4	8
PPWS	.66	1.28

I didn't give Kevin Durant much credit earlier in the season. Still unsure with two sub-par performances against Texas St. and LSU the last week, but last night's line helps his cause:

28 points, 4 O boards, 9 total, for 1.31 PPWS and a 16% rebounding rate on both the offensive and defensive ends.

Wisconsin and Georgia Have Passed Their Tests

Madtown has been waiting a few years for this from Brian Butch. Quite a line: 27 points on 11 field goal attempts, 11 boards with 4 offensive, 3 assists with zero turnovers for an incredible 1.62 PPWS, 14% offensive rebounding percentage and a goliath 37% rebounding percentage. Butch probably won't keep up numbers like this, but being able show that he is indeed capable of a game of this caliber, definitely puts some merry holiday thoughts in Badger fans' minds.
Wisconsin also scored over 1.24 points per possession in their game against Pitt while only turning it over 8 times in a 72 possession game, for a minuscule 11% turnover rate.

Not to be outdone, the "other" Big Ten title contender in Ohio St. walloped the Bearcats while holding them to 27.4% efg and only .71 points per possession, only making 19 shots on 73 attempts. Ouch. Mike Conley was the "leader" of the Buckeyes, with 7 assists, and zero turnovers. Infinite assist-to-turnover percentage, it has been done!!!

The Zags lost to a now-legitimately-tested-Georgia team despite shooting almost 70% efg. But the Bulldogs held a monster edge on the offensive glass, hauling in 44% of their misses, more than making up for the 10% difference in shooting. The Zags also turned the ball over a dreadful 27% of the time, almost double the turnovers of Georgia. It was a much faster game than both teams are accustomed to at 78 possessions, so the high percentage shooting was all the more impressive.

Some other high-profile games to wrap up the holiday season. Posts will be a little sporadic until January.

Thanks for checking

Tempo Free Stats Analysis....Thank you Andy Glockner

This is exactly the type of story that TFS hopes to see on a major sports news site. The Tempo-Free Metro area just picked up another 'burb.

The Teacher Wants Improvement

On to the ever-more important defensive analysis of the biggest gainers on the defensive end thus far....


Oklahoma (5-3) - Their current adjusted .78 points per possession defensively is 2nd best in the nation and .18 better than last year. They are limiting opponents to 40.2% from inside the arc, and also are only allowing 25% of opponents misses to be rebounded by themselves. Taylor Griffin is leading the pack while he himself is grabbing 25% of opponents misses while he's on the floor. What's hindering this stellar defense (that limited Memphis to barely a point a possession in their loss) from posting a better record is a turnover-prone offense that's giving away almost a quarter of their possessions.

Butler (10-1) - The Dawgs don't post stellar numbers in any category but currently stand at allowing under .84 PPP, almost .17 better than last year. A big key has been improving their 2 pt defense, reducing that number from an almost-worst 52% last year to a more respectable 45%. Opponents are shooting a below average 27.7%, but as Pomeroy stated, that number usually normalizes more often than 2 pt shooting, because of the nature of the shot.

Michigan St. (9-2) - The Spartans stand at .805 PP, over .156 better than last year's good but not great defense. Their inside-the-arc defense is superb, allowing 38.5% shooting on 2's and only giving up 25% of opponents' missed shots to rebounds. As a comparison, they were giving up 47.2% shooting on 2 pointers. Like last year, they don't force turnovers, only 20% this year currently, but Drew Naymick is leading the defensive effort while blocking 10.5% of opponents' shots while he's in the game.

Missouri (9-1) - Shaving .145 points off their opponents' scoring rate to .859 ppp has been attributed to a tremendous turnover-forcing defense. They are currently getting 28.7% of their opponents' possessions to end in a turnover, while grabbing a steal on 16% of every possession. Last year they were only getting 21% turnover rate and half as many steals. JuCo transfer Stefhon Hannah has been a gem defensively, as he's second in the nation in total steals (40) and 4th in the nation tempo-free style, as he's ending almost 7% of all opponents' possessions by way of steals.

Oregon (8-0) - One of the big surprises of this team is their vastly improved defense (.839 ppp, for a .119 improvement), an element lacking the past couple of seasons. Previously mentioned in the referenced Pomeroy ESPN article, the Ducks have also been fortunate with opponents' lack of 3pt shooting prowess, at only 26.2% vs 35.6% last year. That number should creep closer to last year's number over time, but what I feel is a good mark for improvement is their increased tenacity in forcing turnovers. They're currently 5th best in the nation, forcing almost a 3rd of all possessions to end in a turnover, compared to 20% last year. The question mark obviously is the higher than average 48.7% shooting they're giving up on 2 pointers. Early games against USC and UCLA will answer some questions.

Gonzaga (9-2) - .111 ppp improvement over last year thus far, to a 43rd best .900 from a defense that ranked 178th last year. They're only giving up 43.7% (vs. 48% last year) shooting on 2 pointers however, a la the Spartans, they don't force opponents' turnovers (only 18.2% this year). They limit opponents' second chances by giving up a respectable 26.6% offensive rebounding rate compared to 31.2% last year. The schedule no less has been extremely brutal up to this point, and thus their numbers appear as if they can only improve. Good signs for March...

Other teams to watch for:

Georgia (too early to tell)
Miss. St.
Purdue
Virginia Tech
Tennesse
Indiana
Central Florida
USC
Evansville

Putting Last Year in the Trunk

Taking a look at some early season teams who have made significant improvements to their overall offensive efficiency.
Granted, the games have been against non-conference opponents and we are comparing year-to-date numbers to end-of-last year numbers, but still, improvements this large (over a .1 point per possession increase, or on average almost 7 points a game at an average tempo) merits some press:

Air Force (10-1)- The team that has already garnered plenty of press here and around the nation, was already efficient last year (1.12 points per possession), however they currently run at a tops-in-the-nation 1.29 PPP while shooting 63.5 eFG % and 43.6% from three. Dan Nwaelele leads the way with 77.7% shooting but all five guys with over 60% of the minutes are shooting over 55% eFG.
Their 16.9% turnover percentage is sublime and they've improved this much while only allowing .02 PPP more on defense from last year.

Purdue (8-1) - Two words on the improvement. Carl Landry. His return this season has helped them add .11 points a possession as he has been involved in over 31% of all possessions, is shooting 68.6% from 2, and is grabbing 13.4% of available offensive boards while he's on the court. Purdue's offensive efficiency has improved from 99.3 to 110.3 while getting some good early season wins against an unbeaten Missouri team, Virginia and a better-than-their-record shows Oklahoma team. Granted the Big Ten season will invariably bring that efficiency down, but it's a good sign to know that Carl Landry has helped their offense click this year.
Their D is also limiting their opponents to an even better .136 points less per possession than last year, but we'll save that for later.

Washington St. (9-1)- Tony Bennett has conjured up some magic out in Pullman, WA thanks to a team that protects the ball infinitely better than last year's team while improving their points per possession by over .105 to 1.05 currently. They're turning it over 18.3% this year compared to over 22% last year, with Derrick Low being the key for the team; dropping his rate from a ghastly 27.1% to a guard-position-exquisite 10.2%!! Combine their offensive turnover improvement to their defensive turnover improvement (3.9% more forced) and that's around a 5 point swing in their favor on average. They've also improved greatly from three-land, shooting 42.1% currently compared to 33.2% last year. With quality wins over Gonzaga and UAB, the Cougs are in good hands. Their last test before the Pac-10 will be against San Diego St on December 21st.


Defense will be dabbled in tomorrow.


Other teams of note:

Winthrop
Georgia
Xavier
Western Kentucky
Maryland
Arizona

Basketball??? This is Pony Racing!!!

A game I was going to post about but forgot, I'll elaborate on today:

Virginia Military Institute currently ranks 1st in possessions per game at a blood pressure jolting 93.2 pos/game. On Saturday, they went up against a Mercer team that also likes to run, at a more realistic 72.6 pos/game. Both teams averaged under a point a possession, but plugging in the numbers, the score predicted was totaling over 180. Sadly, Vegas did not post any lines as I would have loved to see what they would have listed it at. Final score: Mercer 105 VMI 103. Taking us back to the Loyola days.
Some stats from the game to digest:
1. VMI took 94 shots!! Sinking only 34 total, while putting up over 51% to the three and shooting 25% from 3. In most NCAA games, the two teams involved take just over 100 shots combined.
2. Mercer turned the ball over 30 times. Now here's where Tempo Free Stats is key. 30 times is an astronomical amount, no doubt, but in a game this fast (106 possessions!!!!), that's still a bad but not incongruously bad 28% turnover percentage. 30 times in a 70 possession game would definitely be horrendous.
3. On the other side, VMI only turned it over 12 times, for an 11% turnover percentage. Brilliant!! Poor shooting obviously killed them and helped Mercer overcome that large turnover margin.
4. And Mercer had all 5 starters in double digits thanks to 61% shooting between them.

Sadly, only 2,200 people were in attendance to watch the slugfest.

Additional scrumptious note on VMI's prestissimo pace: the next fasted team in the land is averaging 81 possessions a game, 12 less than the Keydets.

Reshuffling the Deck...

A & M - Defense wasn't as sharp as "expected", as UCLA lofted up 55.9% eFG shooting and as expected, didn't force a large amount of turnovers, with only 18% TO% on 12 turnovers in a 66 possession game.

Wichita St. - Wyoming
Was right along with what I was expecting, with the Shockers getting a solid road victory and easily covering the over at a score of 83-69. They forced 22 turnovers in a game played faster than both teams were used to, at a moderately fast 76 possessions.
The Shockers now hold some impressive victories early on in the season to give them a solid base for a tourney resume.

Butler - Indy St.
Well, that over was covered with no problem, but Butler was on the short end of the score for the first time this year, 72-64. They gave up 1.13 ppp, after averaging .79 this season. Indiana St. shot 55.4% eFG and 43.8% from three, while only turning the ball over 8 times in a 63 possession game. The interesting thing with Butler, is that they are obviously a three-point shooting team, yet they haven't shot that well at all from beyond the arc (32% overall while hoisting an 11th most 47.1% of their shots from three).
This game exposed that weakness as they only shot 28.6% while taking over 52% of their shots from three!!
A troll is afoot!

Washington
Got the type of opponent that everyone wanted them to finally face, and wow, is Gonzaga good. Washington's D was suspect, and it showed as they gave up over 1.23 points per possession and only forcing 8 measly turnovers in a fast 78 possession game. Raivio led the team with 25 points, but it was Bouldin that was efficiently effective posting 1.62 points per weighted shot on 9 of 12 shooting overall with 2 freethrows.


SDSU and Kentucky to follow along with bonus Dairy state coverage and more