Dec 8, 2006

Is it Blue or Red?

Back to 10th grade chemistry this weekend.
A slurry of solid basketball action going on this weekend. Some true litmus test games for a few teams, or simply a continuation of a tough early schedule for others.
Without much of an intro, here's a brief look at some interesting matchups:

Litmus Test Teams:

Texas A & M - A match-up of two high quality defensi with above-average offenses. A & M limits it's opponents to a measly 36.9% eFG while forcing a turnover on over 27% of possessions while UCLA stands at 46.6% and 27.5% respectively.
Both hold their opponents to under .9 points a possession.
While A & M really has only faced one tough test in LSU, hence some slightly inflated numbers, they still held the Tigers to barely a point per possession. UCLA isn't terrible efficient on offense (110) for a number 1 team, but if A & M can put a firm hold on the Bruins scoring quad of Collison, Afflalo, Shipp and Mbah a Moute, it should give us a better picture at how good this D really is.

Washington - Only test so far has been a home win against Northern Iowa in which they didn't shoot all that well (46.4% efg) and turned the ball over 17 times in a slower, more Northern Iowa-style pace of 70 possessions. Otherwise, the schedule has been a smorgasboard of easy treats all while staying home in Seattle. Leaving home to visit what should be a rabid bunch of fans against a team that is playing some sound, balanced basketball in Gonzaga will give us a clean look at the Huskies. While it won't be a defensive battle, I'll be interested to see if Washington can get it's offense running more efficiently as it's barely hanging around 1 point scored per possession while giving up .94 on the defensive end.

San Diego St - A surprising loss to Western Michigan leaves us scratching our heads over this early season gem from the MWC. However, the main cause of the loss (almost a third of their possessions ended in a turnover) isn't as strange as they've only managed to stay at the middle of the pack in that department (22.7%). Overall, their defense over the season hasn't been superb, at 1.01 PPP, and they haven't rebounded defensively all that well (giving up 31.1% of opponent's misses). With Arizona clicking in all areas of offensive production (1.25 ppp, 57% eFG, 18% TO rate), SDSU is going to have to play far above it's current level to hold off the Wildcats at home. A better performance, win or lose should help us see whether they have potential to compete for an at-large bid.


Continuation of Tough Early Schedule Teams:

Gonzaga - As previously mentioned, the 'Zags keep the resume-building pre-conference internship rolling along with their annual match-up against the school on the "wrong" side of the Cascades. Should be a great match up of Heytvelt and Raivio vs. Appleby and Hawes with Pondexter putting on a show of his own

Kentucky - With games against UCLA, Memphis and UNC, it's no wonder that the 'Cats have 3 losses against them this early in the year. Next up is what should be a tough match-up for their offense. Indiana brings in a defense averaging only .83 ppp against it while holding shooters to 42.7% eFG, led by DJ White who is blocking 9.4% of opponent's shots while he's on the floor. Randolph Morris was a beast against Hansbrough in the UNC game, it will be intriguingly interesting to see how Morris will be able to match up against White and the much smaller Hoosiers.


More analysis later today.....

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