Dec 13, 2006

Putting Last Year in the Trunk

Taking a look at some early season teams who have made significant improvements to their overall offensive efficiency.
Granted, the games have been against non-conference opponents and we are comparing year-to-date numbers to end-of-last year numbers, but still, improvements this large (over a .1 point per possession increase, or on average almost 7 points a game at an average tempo) merits some press:

Air Force (10-1)- The team that has already garnered plenty of press here and around the nation, was already efficient last year (1.12 points per possession), however they currently run at a tops-in-the-nation 1.29 PPP while shooting 63.5 eFG % and 43.6% from three. Dan Nwaelele leads the way with 77.7% shooting but all five guys with over 60% of the minutes are shooting over 55% eFG.
Their 16.9% turnover percentage is sublime and they've improved this much while only allowing .02 PPP more on defense from last year.

Purdue (8-1) - Two words on the improvement. Carl Landry. His return this season has helped them add .11 points a possession as he has been involved in over 31% of all possessions, is shooting 68.6% from 2, and is grabbing 13.4% of available offensive boards while he's on the court. Purdue's offensive efficiency has improved from 99.3 to 110.3 while getting some good early season wins against an unbeaten Missouri team, Virginia and a better-than-their-record shows Oklahoma team. Granted the Big Ten season will invariably bring that efficiency down, but it's a good sign to know that Carl Landry has helped their offense click this year.
Their D is also limiting their opponents to an even better .136 points less per possession than last year, but we'll save that for later.

Washington St. (9-1)- Tony Bennett has conjured up some magic out in Pullman, WA thanks to a team that protects the ball infinitely better than last year's team while improving their points per possession by over .105 to 1.05 currently. They're turning it over 18.3% this year compared to over 22% last year, with Derrick Low being the key for the team; dropping his rate from a ghastly 27.1% to a guard-position-exquisite 10.2%!! Combine their offensive turnover improvement to their defensive turnover improvement (3.9% more forced) and that's around a 5 point swing in their favor on average. They've also improved greatly from three-land, shooting 42.1% currently compared to 33.2% last year. With quality wins over Gonzaga and UAB, the Cougs are in good hands. Their last test before the Pac-10 will be against San Diego St on December 21st.


Defense will be dabbled in tomorrow.


Other teams of note:

Winthrop
Georgia
Xavier
Western Kentucky
Maryland
Arizona

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