Who's Busting Who??

As we get set for some major-conference tourney action, there's always the possibility of some meddling sub-par or below-bubble major to make a run and steal a bid from the Missouri St. and Drexel's of the world. Here's just a few snapshots of some teams that much like Michigan St, could greatly benefit from fixing just one or two glaring weaknesses in time for this weekend's slate of games.

Big East
Providence - Currently turning the ball over 24.1% of the time but they are shooting well (51.6 efg%) and aren't bad, just merely average on defense (1.02 ppp allowed). If they could bring their turnover rate down to average (20.4%) levels, they would be averaging 1.10 ppp vs. their current 1.03. Watch if Geoff McDermoott and Sharaud Curry can limit their give-aways. The road begins with an overrated Mountaineers squad, and then a hot-but-vulnerable Louisville team.

Big 12
Missouri - Overall, Mike Anderson's defense isn't all that bad, his team is just giving up far too many second chance points, allowing over 30% offensive rebounding for their opponents. They force a good number of turnovers (22.8%) and keep their opponents under 47% from 2-pt, but give up 38% on 3's. They shoot well (51.3% efg) and also hold onto the ball (19.1% to rate). Locking down the defensive boards could be a key that helps this young, undersized team make a run. A match-up against a hobbled-Durant can only help the cause.

ACC
Florida St - This team "might" be in, depending on who you ask. Of course, making a nice run in the toughest of tough ACC tourney-fields would help boost their chances on Sunday. Where can they improve? Their solid offense (1.10 ppp, 52.4% efg, 19.6% turnover-rate) is offset severely by a lack of defense (1.09 ppp allowed, 53% efg and only 19.5% turnover rate forced). This team can shoot the three (40% in-conference) and are also a great free-throw shooting team (5th best in the nation), two elements that are key come tourney time. Probably too late in the season to drastically improve your defense, but with 3-pt shooting like that, they might as well increase their 3-pt shot frequency from their current rate of 1 out of ever 3 shots. Maybe not Princeton levels, but closer. A tough draw in the tourney may be a blessing in disguise.

SEC
Arkansas - The hogs are in a similar spot as Providence, as they are a solid shooting team (52.1% efg) but just cough up far too many turnovers (23.2% of possessions). Their defense is actually better than average at .99 points-per-possession allowed and they hold opponents to under 46% efg shooting. This team, like the Seminoles, is probably looking in from the outside at the moment as far as NCAA position goes, but a strong run to the finals could pop them back in, and leave some other noteworthy teams out. Limit the bloodbath of turnovers (I'm looking at you Gary Ervin and Sonny Weems), and they may have a shot at making a run. Dropping the turnover rate to a respectable number of 19.9%, and their offensive efficiency rises from 1.01 to 1.05 points-per-possession. I think they will gladly take those three points in what should be a easier-than-expected draw to the finals.

Pac10
Washington - A team that most pundits have labeled as a "bubble-bursting" Pac10 tourney team, this collection of young athletic folk could very easily piece it all together and make a run to the final. They rebound the heck out of the ball on the offensive end (36.1% rate, also 2nd nationally at 42.1%) and they only allow their opponents to get a measly 21.3% of their misses back. But, they're allowing 55% efg shooting and almost 1.10 points a possession on defense. Can the average (50.4% efg) shooting improve and can they clamp down on their opponents shots? Tune in on Wednesday to find out. They probably have the *easiest road to the finals of the 1st round Pac10 teams.

*all relative!! East-coast bias shmias.