Where are they going now?

In a fairly wide-open Pac10 field this year (8 legitimately can still make the NCAA, 5 have real shots at winning the conference), it's good to try and see how conference play has affected a team's stats. Any indication of future play can help. If a team's numbers are inflated due to their schedule strength, we'd like to dig that up, shake it around and beat it like a dirty old rug.

When comparing total pre-conference numbers to Pac10 play, here's just some numbers that pop out:

Of course, offensive efficiency will drop as you enter conference play, but the Bruins has dropped the most.
After cruising at 1.20 ppp pre-conference, UCLA is running at 1.06 ppp in Pac10 play.
USC has actually increased, .05 points a possession to 1.12. .05 may seem like a drop in the bucket, but with a 68 possession-on-average game, that translates into 3.4 points a game. I'm guessing they will gladly keep those 3.4 points in their 2 points win over Oregon.

On the same note, defensive efficiency will also drop (well, rise in points-per-possession allowed), however the biggest change has been Oregon, going from .9 ppp to 1.08 (facing UCLA, Arizona and USC will do that to you).
Also up there are Washington (.96 to 1.14), Arizona (.95 to 1.11) and Stanford (.92 to 1.08).
Washington St. has held steady, only going from .89 to .96 ppp.

As a cause of the Trojans increase in efficiency, USC is shooting 5.2% better in Pac10 play compared to their 53% effective FG% posted pre-conference. Thank Taj Gibson's 66.7% efg and Nick Young's 61.4% efg for that improvement.

Even better, they're turning the ball over 6.1% less in conference play. They were turning it over 24% of the time pre-conference!

Oregon wasn't great pre-conference on the offensive glass (38%), but now they're over 10% worse in conference so far. Marty Leunen can only do so much to help the cause on the boards.

UCLA meanwhile has improved their defensive rebounding by over 13%. They are currently at an incredible 84.3% rate, almost 8% better than the next highest team.

I'll post this data shortly....




Quick previews for tonight:

Stanford at Oregon
Get the ball into the hands of Lawrence Hill (58%efg, only 11% Turnover rate) and the Cardinal have at least a shot to keep it close.
Ducks have 4 guys (including limited games Hairston) shooting over 55% efg. Wowzers.

California at Oregon St.
Beavers need to force Cal into at least the 23% turnover average that Oregon St. has been forcing to have a chance. Cal has limited their exposure, only giving up 17% overall. They lost the one game that they went over 23%.

Arizona at USC
A big home win potentially for the Trojans. Look for this game to move, and potentially hit the 150's in total points. We'll see if USC's improved shooting can keep up. Oh, Arizona has 5 guys over 55% efg by the way.

Arizona St. at UCLA
Both teams will keep this one slow. UCLA better not look ahead to Saturday.